Who could replace Putin: the bear-catching bodyguard, the ex-FSB chief or the 'Viceroy of the Donbas'?

27 March 2025, 09:50 | Updated: 27 March 2025, 11:53

Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he thought Vladimir Putin would die soon - but who would replace him at the end of his reign?

Putin, 72, has been either president or prime minister of Russia since 1999.

He first gained control of the Kremlin in 2000, succeeding Boris Yeltsin, and served two terms until 2008.

Putin then stepped down because of consecutive term limits under the Russian constitution, becoming Prime Minister under Dmitry Medvedev until 2012 - but many suspected him of remaining in control.

He took back over the presidency in 2012, and has ruled ever since with terms extended to four years. His most recent re-election was in 2024. His current - fifth - term runs until 2030.

A constitutional change enacted in 2020 means that Putin can legally remain president and be re-elected until 2036 - when he would be in his mid-80s.

But if he were to cease being president today, who are some of the candidates to replace him?

Mikhail Mishustin

Mikhail Mishustin is the prime minister. If Putin were to die or resign before the next elections, Mishustin would replace him as interim president until a new vote could be held.

A long-term bureaucrat who previously led Russia's Federal Taxation Service, Mishustin became Prime Minister in 2020, replacing Medvedev. He was personally nominated to the role by Putin.

He has developed an image as a managerial politician, rather than someone motivated by ideology. Sources told Russian media outlets that Mishustin was not even made aware of Russia's invasion of Ukraine before it happened.

Sergei Sobyanin

Sergei Sobyanin is the mayor of Moscow, a role he has held for 15 years.

He is generally popular and well-known, both in Moscow and Russia more widely.

He is also seen as a political insider, having previously served as a deputy prime minister under Putin and as a regional governor. He is also said to maintain close links with various oligarchs.

Sobyanin was criticised by some for banning Pride parades in Moscow, in line with broader Russian anti-LGBT policies. Unlike in many Western countries, this is unlikely to prove a major stumbling block in any election campaign.

Nikolai Patrushev

Nikolai Patrushev is the former head of the FSB, Russia's security service, and until last year was the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, a role he had filled since 2008. This job made him the key adviser to Putin on national security.

Patrushev - more so than Mishustin and Sobyanin - is overtly ideologically hostile to the US and to NATO.

He was said to have been a key voice in getting Russia to annex Crimea in 2014 and invade Ukraine in 2022.

It has also been claimed that he was behind the plan to assassinate Yevgeny Prigozhin on a plane, after the Wagner Group chief's failed uprising in 2023.

Some say Patrushev's removal from the Security Council in 2024 was motivated by Putin's anger at the relative failure of the invasion.

Former MI6 leader Sir Richard Dearlove said Patrushev would be the most likely person to replace Putin.

But at 73, Patrushev is older than Putin, and some commentators have pointed at his son Dmitry, who at 48 is a deputy prime minister, as another possible successor.

Sergei Kirienko

Sergei Kirienko is first deputy chief of staff to Putin, making him a key adviser to the president.

Kirienko, 62, was previously prime minister in 1998 aged just 35, but stepped down after just four months, following a bond crisis for which he took responsibility.

Later he led Russia's state nuclear energy agency Rosatom for 11 years before taking up his current role in 2016.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, he has taken a leading role in the management of the occupied regions, earning him the nickname 'Viceroy of the Donbas'.

Kirienko is even said to have been seen travelling around the annexed territories wearing camouflage.

Alexei Dyumin

Alexei Dyumin, 52, replaced Patrushev as head of the Security Council in 2024 and was previously the governor of Tula region, south of Moscow, for eight years.

As deputy head of the GRU military intelligence agency in 2014, he played a key role in the annexation of Crimea.

But he is perhaps best known for serving as Putin's bodyguard in the early 2000s, during which time he claims to have saved the president from a bear.

Describing his encounter with the bear, which appeared outside the doors of the presidential palace while Putin was asleep, Dyumin said: "We looked each other in the eyes, he stepped back a bit.

"I opened the door and unloaded the entire cartridge of my pistol under his legs. I felt pity for the bear."