Rural red wave comes out for Trump

5 November 2020, 03:14

A Trump supporter in Utah
Election 2020 Utah Voting. Picture: PA

Republican voters came out in force for Tuesday’s US election.

President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign long maintained there were thousands of new supporters tucked into rural, red pockets of the country who would come out and vote for the president when asked.

On election day, there was proof.

With the race unsettled in several key battlegrounds, Mr Trump’s strong election day surge may not be enough to overcome a Democratic operation that also boosted its vote. With votes still being counted, the total turn-out has already surpassed 2016 levels.

But the tight presidential races and unexpected Democratic losses in congressional races demonstrated the resilient power of Mr Trump’s appeal with rural, white voters and a growing polarisation that may outlast his leadership.

William Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution, said the Trump campaign strategy was tenuously built on increasing support in places that are losing population, while the Democrats’ relied on groups with growing cities and suburbs.

Election 2020 Florida
A supporter of President Donald Trump waves a flag in Miami ((Wilfredo Lee/AP)

“The clock is ticking,” Mr Frey said. “But in this election we found it’s not ticking fast enough for the Democrats.”

Even as the winner of the White House was unclear, Republicans had victories to celebrate on Wednesday – and white, rural voters to thank.

In Iowa, Democrats had hoped to pick up a Senate seat, but Mr Trump won the state comfortably on the strength of his rural turn-out, while Republican senator Joni Ernst also held her seat.

Democratic Representative Abby Finkenauer lost her re-election bid in the eastern part of the state as Mr Trump bolstered his margins in rural areas like Buchanan County just west of Dubuque. Mr Trump won the rural county, which is 96% white, by 15 percentage points in 2016. That margin jumped to 21 percentage points this year.

In North Carolina, Mr Trump picked up 2,400 votes over his 2016 total in tiny Columbus County, near the South Carolina border. He repeated that pattern across the state’s vast rural areas, blunting the Democratic surge in its urban base.

Election 2020 Trump
Donald Trump after his defiant appearance at the White House on election night (Evan Vucci/AP)

Democrats had hoped to win the state outright for Mr Biden and oust Republican senator Thom Tillis as part of their effort to win majority control of that chamber. Both races were too early to call on Wednesday.

Democrats also mobilised their voters to drive what may be historic turn-out levels. Those Democratic voters were more likely to vote early and by mail — meaning their votes were slower to be counted. As the vote counts increased, several key battlegrounds — including Wisconsin and Michigan — became Biden victories and Mr Trump’s leads were narrowing in Pennsylvania and Georgia.

But an Associated Press analysis of results found the strong turn-out — so far — was tilted in Mr Trump’s favour. In counties where vote totals were higher than the last presidential election, Mr Trump increased his margins more than his Democratic opponent did, when compared to 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton’s vote. While the differences were small — an average of 0.2 percentage points — it’s enough to tally up tens of thousands of additional voters.

Election 2020 Biden
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. His party also increased its voter turn-out on Tuesday (Carolyn Kaster/AP)

There were many of these high turn-out areas — the country tallied at least 140 million votes, surpassing the 2016 total. The number is expected to keep growing, especially as California slowly counts millions of additional ballots, a process that can take weeks. Determining the national turn-out rate will take as long or longer.

Experts believe this election could feature the highest turn-out rate — the percentage of the eligible population that votes — since before all women were granted the right to vote in the 20th century.

One of the counties to surpass its 2016 turn-out was Butler County, Pennsylvania, a stretch of suburbs and towns north of Pittsburgh, where Mr Trump won two-thirds of the vote and racked up a 36,000-vote margin in 2016. His margin was a few hundred votes higher this year.

Mr Trump held one of his final, largest campaign rallies in Butler, drawing an estimated 54,000 people two days before Election Day. State Republicans spent months signing up new GOP registrants in the county — the GOP netted 11,000 voters over Democrats since Trump’s 2016 election.

By Press Association

Latest World News

See more Latest World News

Video footage shows the convoy had emergency lights flashing when it was hit

Israel admits ‘mistakenly’ killing 15 aid workers after video leak contradicted official version of events

Jaguar Land Rover has paused shipments to the US in the wake of 'Liberation Day' tariffs

Jaguar Land Rover halts shipments to US in wake of tariffs as Trump insists he'll win 'economic revolution'

Flowers and toys left on a swing seat to commemorate victims killed in Russia's missile attack on Friday

Death toll from Russian strike on Zelenskyy's home town rises as 18 confirmed dead - including nine children

Donald Trump's 10% tariff on UK products has officially come into force

Trump tariffs come into force as global stock markets plunge deeper into the red

Tom Howard

British tourist killed after being struck by boulder on trek through Himalayas

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Emergency Service, a car burns following a Russian missile attack that killed more than a dozen people, including children, in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, Friday, April 4, 2025. (Ukrainian Emergency Service via AP)

Russia kills 16 people including three children in missile strike on Zelenskyy's home town, with dozens wounded

Travel influencer Mykhailo Viktorovych Polyakov, 24, made an illegal visit to North Sentinel Island

Tourist who left Coke for world's most isolated tribe 'could have wiped them all out' - and police 'can't go collect can'

White House weighs in to support ‘censored’ anti-abortion activists in Britain

White House looking to support ‘censored’ anti-abortion activists in Britain

This image provided by NASA shows Nick Hague, right, Suni Williams, and Butch Wilmore. (NASA via AP)

Stranded NASA astronauts reveal they were almost trapped in space 'forever' after horror malfunction

Donald Trump demands France 'free Marine Le Pen'

Donald Trump demands France 'free Marine Le Pen' after far-right leader found guilty of embezzlement in 'witch hunt'

China will impose a 34% retaliatory tariff on imports from the US

China announces additional 34% tariffs on US imports in retaliation over Trump's 'Liberation Day' levies

Friends of Prince Andrew say he's "unsurprised" Giuffre made the post

Prince Andrew 'not surprised' his accuser shared shock post saying she had 'four days to live'

South Korea's impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol

South Korea president Yoon Suk Yeol removed from office as impeachment upheld over martial law declaration

Virginia Giuffre

Woman driving Prince Andrew accuser Virginia Giuffre during crash that left her with 'four days to live' breaks silence

Exclusive
'Donald Trump has made Putin comfortable,' Mikhail Khodorkovsky has warned

'Trump has made Putin comfortable' despite massive Ukraine war losses, exiled former oligarch tells LBC

The bodies of Andrew Searle and his wife Dawn were discovered by a neighbour.

British couple found dead in south of France home being ‘treated as murder-suicide’