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German leader in Ukraine for talks as fears of Russian invasion grow
14 February 2022, 10:24
Olaf Scholz’s trip will be closely watched for any signs of deviation from US and Nato rhetoric on the crisis.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz has visited Ukraine as part of a flurry of Western diplomacy aimed at heading off a feared Russian invasion that some warn could be just days away.
Mr Scholz plans to continue on to Moscow, where he will try to persuade Russian president Vladimir Putin to back down.
US officials have warned that Russia could attack Ukraine this week.
Moscow denies it has any such plans, but has massed more than 130,000 troops near Ukraine and, in the view of US officials, has built up enough firepower to launch an invasion on short notice.
With concerns rising that war could be imminent, some airlines cancelled flights to the Ukrainian capital and troops there unloaded fresh shipments of weapons from Nato members on Sunday.
The US, UK and other European nations have told their citizens to leave the country and Washington is also pulling most of its staff from the embassy in Kyiv.
Ukraine’s air traffic safety agency Ukraerorukh issued a statement declaring the airspace over the Black Sea to be a “zone of potential danger” because of Russian naval drills and recommended that planes avoid flying over the sea from February 14-19.
The US and its Nato allies have repeatedly warned that Russia will pay a high price for any invasion – but they have sometimes struggled to present a united front.
Mr Scholz’s government, in particular, has been criticised for refusing to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine or to spell out which sanctions it would support against Russia, raising questions about Berlin’s resolve to stand up to Moscow.
The chancellor’s visits this week will thus be closely watched for a signs of deviating from the message delivered by Washington and other Nato allies.
So far, those warnings appear to have had little effect: Russia has only beefed up troops and weapons in the region and launched massive drills in its ally Belarus, which also neighbours Ukraine.
The West fears that the exercises, which entered their decisive phase last week and will run until Sunday, could be used by Moscow as a cover for an invasion from the north.
Moscow wants guarantees from the West that Nato will not allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join as members, and that the alliance will halt weapon deployments to Ukraine and roll back its forces from Eastern Europe.
The US and Nato have flatly rejected those demands.
Some observers expect Moscow to eventually accept a compromise that would help avoid hostilities and allow all sides to save face.
While Nato refuses to shut the door to Ukraine, the alliance also has no intention of embracing it or any other ex-Soviet nation any time soon.
Some experts have floated ideas such as a moratorium on Nato expansion or a neutral status for Ukraine to defuse the tensions.
After a call on Saturday with Mr Putin, US president Joe Biden said that invading Ukraine would cause “widespread human suffering” and that the West was committed to diplomacy to end the crisis but is “equally prepared for other scenarios”, the White House said.
Mr Biden also spoke to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky for about an hour on Sunday, agreeing to keep pushing both deterrence and diplomacy to try to stave off a Russian offensive.
Mr Zelenskyy sought to play down the idea that a conflict was imminent, noting that Kyiv and other cities of Ukraine “are safe and under reliable protection”.
Officials also quoted him suggesting that a quick visit from Mr Biden would help de-escalate the situation – signalling Mr Zelensky’s hope the US leader might actually come to Ukraine.
That possibility was not mentioned in the White House summary of the call.
“I am convinced that your arrival in Kyiv in the coming days, which are crucial for stabilising the situation, will be a powerful signal and contribute to de-escalation,” Mr Zelensky was quoted by his office as telling Mr Biden.
The Biden administration has become increasingly outspoken about its concerns that Russia could create a false pretext for an invasion in the coming days.
Russia and Ukraine have been locked in a bitter conflict since 2014, when Ukraine’s Kremlin-friendly leader was driven from office by a popular uprising.
Moscow responded by annexing the Crimean Peninsula and then backing a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine, where fighting has killed more than 14,000 people.
A 2015 peace deal brokered by France and Germany helped halt large-scale battles, but regular skirmishes have continued, and efforts to reach a political settlement have stalled.