Labour could win a landslide 140-seat majority: Expert breaks down latest poll
8 June 2023, 13:31
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice analysis of new MRP poll
In his analysis of a new poll, Professor Sir John Curtice explained the reasons why it will be a "tall order" for the Conservatives to sufficiently turn things around and form the next government.
The multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) poll suggested Labour could win 470 out of 650 seats. Over 10,000 voters were polled by Focaldata for the campaign group Best of Britain and found the Tories could be left with 129 seats.
When Nick Ferrari at Breakfast asked polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice what he made of the figures, he replied that they are at the "high end of expectations for Labour", and observed that the 16-point lead Sir Keir Starmer's party has over the Conservatives is "very much in line with what pretty much every other poll has been saying".
He added that it appears as though "the Conservatives are going to lose ground most heavily in places where they were previously strongest", and the recent local elections would give support to the drop in Tory support, where they lost around 1000 council seats.
Nick asked: "With around 18 months possibly to go prior to the general election, how much is there still to play for?"
"The real question probably is not who is going to form the next government", his guest replied. "The Labour Party are odds-on to form the next administration."
Carol Vorderman explains statistical poll results which predicts hung parliament
Listen and subscribe to Unprecedented: Inside Downing Street on Global Player
The polling expert continued: "Not only are the Conservatives so far behind, but we also have to remember at the moment none of the other political parties inside the House of Commons would be willing to help to sustain a minority Conservative administration.
"So even if Labour have fewer seats than the Conservatives, they're going to find it easier to form a new administration."
Professor Curtice was quick to add that how well the Opposition would be able to affect the party currently in power is "still very much open", as is the possibility of the country facing a hung parliament.
He noted that it was "plausible" to suggest that things could improve sufficiently for Rishi Sunak's party to retain power at the next election, but "whether they can turn it around enough to be able to themselves form a government - that certainly at the moment does look like a very tall order".
Broadcaster and maths whizz Carol Vorderman, who was involved in the Best of Britain press conference for this "first major MRP polling", told James O'Brien yesterday about how public opinion of the Prime Minister has dipped, saying: "When they came to Sunak, the way he is described, he is 'less unpopular than the Conservative Party'".
