New world order: Starmer to juggle looming tariffs, a Western alliance in crisis and Putin during 24 hours in Washington

26 February 2025, 22:37 | Updated: 27 February 2025, 09:57

Flying three thousand miles across the Atlantic for 24 hours at the White House with the most outspoken, bold and unpredictable President America’s ever seen.

Looming tariffs, the Western alliance over Ukraine hanging by a thread, and Putin dictating peace talks.

Back home, a party not long into office, struggling in the polls, with Nigel Farage breathing down their necks, and a huge in-tray to sort too.

The most important moment of Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership so far - and possibly ever – will dictate how easy or difficult the next four years will be for him in Downing Street.

What could possibly go wrong?

We could see his nerves when he came to the back of the plane to speak to us journalists on the way over, desperate not to overstep a line which could land him in hot water tomorrow.

Sir Keir Starmer says repeatedly he wants to be a bridge between the US and Europe.

Well. He’s going to need to stretch it pretty far to have any hope of getting the two sides to meet, with things as they stand.

The PM thinks he doesn’t have to choose, and is carefully plotting a path of flattery, calling out Trump’s position when he has to, and playing the ‘special relationship card’ as often as needed.

But the diplomatic gymnastics can only be contorted so far – just ask Theresa May how that worked out.

He flies in today to play the role of good cop to Emmanuel Macron’s bad cop – without the bromance or the sideburns – and will hope to press the President on a role for Ukraine at the negotiating table, and US backing for a peacekeeping mission.

Those are two things the President’s already cast huge doubt on.

With the formation of a peace deal on the cards, a minerals agreement, and a peacekeeping troop draft being sketched up, it feels like things are moving at lightning speed already.

The PM told us he’s not at odds with him on Ukraine – which feels a little gaslighty to say the least.

He’s already got ahead of the game with a defence spending announcement – ramping up to 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2027 – three years earlier than the Tories.

He says the world’s changed now – but that begs the question why he didn’t make this call months ago.

And with defence chiefs crying out for 3 per cent and more, it feels to me to be a bit too late, with no serious plan for what needs to happen.

One thing’s for sure – there’s no way a Labour prime minister would be cutting aid spending to send nukes to Ukraine if Donald Trump wasn’t in the White House.

He’s changed the world order beyond all recognition after just a month back in the office – and there’s no signs that will slow down anytime soon.

Then there’s the Chagos islands – which the PM’s planning to sell off to Mauritius for up to £18billion, despite concerns about their links to China.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy admitted last night the President had an effective veto, and it won’t go ahead if he doesn’t give it the green light.

Privately, some Labour backbenchers wouldn’t be unhappy to see the whole thing – and it’s huge price tag – totally kiboshed by the US chief.

To succeed in his mission, the PM should bear in mind two things Donald Trump told the world’s media alongside President Macron earlier this week.

First: “I want to be a peacemaker.”

Second: “I make deals.”

Trump’s made no secret of his big plan to bring the war to an end, and the Government admits his return to the White House has been a total gamechanger for pushing both sides towards peace.

Persuade Don of his genuine desire for a proper Ukraine deal that won’t unravel later, and allow him to take credit for it.

Realise the value that Donald Trump puts in showing strength on the world stage.

And wake up and smell the coffee on a proper plan for UK and European defence.

This week could be the most consequential for the special relationship since World War II.

Will it be blown to smithereens or be the most special thing we’ve ever seen?

When the PM takes to the podium tomorrow, following a cosy Oval Office chat, with the world’s cameras in his face, he has no idea what words might come out of the President’s mouth, and what it could mean for the UK, or for Ukraine.

Unlike with Kemi Badenoch, he can’t patronise him, belittle him, insult him, or try and lawyer his way out of it.

Sir Keir better be prepared for the most dangerous diplomatic dance of his life – as with Donald Trump, anything’s possible.

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