We're starting to learn what Starmerism means but he has to make sure the cracks don't shatter his vision

26 September 2024, 16:04

By Natasha Clark

@NatashaC

With just than 100 days in office, Sir Keir Starmer should be basking still in the warm glow of his huge, hard-won parliamentary majority.

The most well-attended conference ever, fringes packed, only one minor protestor, businesses back (albeit slightly grumbly), only a trickle of backbenchers sounding off, and an embarrassing union vote pushed to the margins.

No10 will be feeling pleased that after a strong summer, their first conference in power went off without a huge hitch, minus an amusing sausages slip.

But as delegates, MPs, charities and lobbyists leave Liverpool fresh from days of schmoozing, parties, photo-ops and speeches, a few cracks in the armour are already appearing.

Surprise, surprise; governing is hard

There’s no doubt that the storm around freebies, free suits and donation from wealthy donors cast an unwelcome shadow over Liverpool.

MPs were frustrated with the time it took for the semi-u-turn on accepting clothing donations, and questioned why Sir Keir couldn't say it was wrong if he was no longer going to do it.

As a man who promised his government would be one of "service", and better than the last guys, it's just not enough to argue that that's how they used to do it.

One Labour source told me: "It did have a whiff of the expenses scandal to it. It's not technically wrong, or against the rules, but it doesn't sit well. We need to think about how it all looks, too."

Few begrudge the PM for wanting to go to the football with his son or stay at the home of a friend, but his messaging on this one has been all over the place.

If the PM had come out to announce a review into the current arrangements, he could have kicked this row into the short grass.Instead he's floundering with several lines of defence, which just aren't washing with voters.

Polling from YouGov has shown  that half of Britons think it was wrong for politicians to accept the donations even though it was within the rules.

29 per cent say it was OK to accept the donations, but the rules should not allow them.

The PM and his top team need to be more nimble at responding, quickly, to the sorts of rows they'll see in government, day in, day out.

Labour’s old friends could fast become foes

The cut-through among ordinary voters, from cabbies to shop staff, was over winter fuel and, crucially, the decision to announce it as one of the first acts of a new government.

Unions and left-wing backbenchers from the Corbynite wing of the party were the first to realise this political opportunity and jump on it.

John McDonnell - still without the Labour whip - predicting Starmer's speech would have an air of Osborne-ite rhetoric in it turned out to be eerily accurate, and privately many MPs share those concerns.

The narrative was set that Labour's first priority, in a bid to fill the black hole, was to hit pensioners in the wallet at a time where bills are going back up again.

This will be a hard one to shift, and the budget will be make-or-break.

I was struck by the level of anger from unions behind the scenes, and on the airways Unite's Sharon Graham and the FBU's Matt Wrack led those concerns from the front.

This was felt most keenly when nurses rejected a 5.5 per cent pay offer in the middle of the conference.

Controversial motions on Gaza and trans were also quashed at source.With key workers' rights legislation on the way and more settlements to strike, Downing Street should keep a close eye on them, and engage them, without being seen as pandering to their every whim.

Keir Starmer can't let Sue Gray become Dominic Cummings

The ongoing discontent over Sue Gray shows no signs of going away either.

Talk about the PM's chief of staff bubbled up so much it turned into a fully blown (false) rumour about her position, which swept like wildfire around one of the final parties of the conference.

But though few outside the Westminster bubble have heard of her, the disrupter-in-chief is raising eyebrows with everyone from special advisers to Cabinet ministers, on her level of influence and involvement.

It's not gone unnoticed that she's again with the PM in New York attending UNGA this week, and was front and centre of pictures of the top team in Washington with President Biden too.

One minister told me: "She's everywhere, even sitting in on everything down to low-level meetings, it's clear she doesn't trust us to get on with the job. It's not a sustainable position. Something's going to have to give at some point."

Starmer is angry at the briefings against her and staying incredibly loyal to her - for now.

He can't let her become a permanent distraction at the heart of government or risk becoming a symptom of the very in-fighting and chaos he vowed to move on from.

Doom and gloom is here to stay...

Every speech from a Cabinet minister used the ‘Tory legacy’ playbook to their advantage, taking their chance to make their swipes at their predecessors.

And why wouldn't they?It's something previous governments have used incredibly effectively to push their agendas, and ahead of a "painful" budget, this is crucial pitch rolling.

With a tricky budget on the way, pay deals to sort and a reported black hole to fill, that narrative is here to stay.

Starmer's top team know, however, that there is a time-limit on this.They are leaving the honeymoon period - if that ever existed - and Starmer's attempt to pivot to a message of hope was welcomely received by most MPs.

It'll be a tough balancing act to blame the Tories for everything if they take too long to turn the ship around.

Tough trade offs are on the way – and he’s up for the fight

At the core of the PM’s speech was a warning that in order to deliver the change he promised, he’ll need all of us to take on the chin things we don’t want to do.

Pylons, prisons and putting up with more homes in our areas are just a few of the tough choices to come.

He'll need to prove the worth of these and take the country with him, or risk pleasing no one - a trap Rishi Sunak fell into which left his government without a narrative.

What struck me from the speech was that despite saying on the steps of Downing Street that he wanted the state to "tread more lightly on our lives", I don't think that's the direction this government will go in.

Junk food advert bans, outlawing smoking in pub gardens is taking on the NIMBYs and the nanny-state at source.

What's clear from his first few months in power is that Starmer is very much up for the fight.

But we're one step close to finding out what 'Starmerism' means

Easily dismissed as mere soundbites, the idea of "building a Britain that works for you", creating opportunity and "national renewal" are giving us a flavour of what Starmerism really means.

Quiet, determined reform to fix a long list of problems and get the country back to a place where outcomes can start to improve again.

Starmer must make sure the cracks appearing don't shatter that vision