The 'special relationship' is dead, and Starmer should not attempt to save it, writes Simon Marks

26 February 2025, 07:20

By Simon Marks

It is not hyperbole to suggest that Sir Keir Starmer’s meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday will be the most consequential encounter between any British and American leader since Winston Churchill joined Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Joseph Stalin at the Yalta Peace Conference in 1945.

So comprehensively has Trump upended the trans-Atlantic relationship in the last fortnight that it is currently hard to divine whether Washington is still an ally of the U.K., is already an adversary, or might be something in-between.

Either way, this will not be a “business-as-usual” summit in the Oval Office. Which made it all the more astonishing that Security Minister Dan Jarvis, the Labour MP for Barnsley North, told LBC’s ‘Nick Ferrari At Breakfast’ on Monday that “a further cementing of the special relationship” between Washington and London would “constitute a successful trip” for the Prime Minister.

Earth to Dan Jarvis MP: the “special relationship”, if it ever actually existed, is now an artifact of history. The phrase – hackneyed and over-used for decades – must be officially consigned to the ash heap of bilateral clichés.

As Prime Minister Keir Starmer heads to Washington DC for his first meeting with President Trump, follow the latest updates as they unfold. Get expert analysis, live reports, and exclusive insights — on Global Player.

A successful summit will not be one in which the “special relationship” is deepened, but a summit in which Starmer and Trump differ on critical issues, paper over their disdain for one another’s positions, and find some way of agreeing to work together in the future.

On America’s current trajectory, it is reasonable to imagine a future in which the United States becomes an ally of Vladimir Putin and lifts not a solitary finger to defend Lithuania, Estonia or Latvia if they eventually come under Russian assault.

Imagine, perhaps, the awful day when a UK peacekeeper in Ukraine is attacked by a Russian drone, but Washington deems it unworthy of any response.

Imagine the dawning of an era in which all those pro-Putin oligarchs whose money is frozen in the UK are instead free to snap up property on New York’s Upper West Side and launder their cash via American banks.

That becomes increasingly possible, given that Trump’s Attorney General, Pam Bondi, has already gutted anti-corruption enforcement in the United States.

On Tuesday, Trump himself indicated that wealthy Russians may be eligible for the “Gold Card” he is launching that will provide US visas for any entrepreneur investing $5 million in the country. “I know some Russian oligarchs that are very nice people”, Trump told reporters at the White House.

Meanwhile, America’s President maintains that he is committed to NATO, yet is tirelessly working to cast doubt on Article 5 – the Alliance’s central, mutual defence covenant. It is already prudent to wonder whether the United States can any longer be trusted to uphold it.

Starmer will arrive here, secure in the knowledge that his pledge to increase U.K. defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 meets the demand once made by Trump of all NATO members.

But Trump has already upped that particular demand to 5%, and will almost certainly keep raising the stakes until – as one former top official told me – “he has simply priced Article 5 out of existence”.

Trump is always loosey-goosey with numbers. Sometimes he claims the United States has given Ukraine $350 billion in aid. Other times, he cites a number of $500 billion.

The real figure is closer to $120 billion, and the oft-repeated claim that “more than half the money has gone missing” is entirely untrue. (Not a single dollar of US funding is “missing”, according to analysis by Washington’s independent and highly respected “Center of Strategic and International Studies”).

Macron did not hesitate to correct Trump when he spouted disinformation about finances and Ukraine, and Starmer must now be ready to do exactly the same.

More broadly, the PM will need to be very light on his feet. His host is likely to pull all kinds of surprises. Before the two leaders even engage in discussion, he will almost certainly turn the ritual photo opportunity in the Oval Office into an impromptu press conference (the ordeal an astonished Macron endured on Monday) and invite pliant, pro-Trump reporters to lob him some softballs.

Trump may even pull a rabbit out of the hat, like ensuring that his de facto Prime Minister, Elon Musk – a persistent thorn in Starmer’s side is – just by chance, you understand - on hand in the West Wing and fancies a natter with the President’s guest.

Today in Washington, absolutely anything can and will happen, and there is no established respect for the diplomatic protocols of the past.

To date, Starmer has been on the receiving end of generous Trump plaudits. The President has claimed he has a “very good relationship” with the Prime Minister.

“He’s liberal, which is a bit different from me, but I think he’s a very good person and he’s doing a very good job”, Trump proclaimed in January.

But that was a month ago, and as the commentator and analyst Anne Applebaum eloquently observes in her latest dispatch for “The Atlantic”:

‘The Trump administration is now bringing the post-World War II era to an end. No one should be surprised. This was predictable, and indeed was predicted’.

Those words should echo in the Prime Minister’s mind as he walks into the Oval Office. He should remember that a “cementing of the special relationship” is definitely no longer the aim of the game.

__________________________

Simon Marks is LBC’s Washington Correspondent, and his “American Week” can be heard every Friday on ‘Tom Swarbrick at Drive’ at 5:50pm.

LBC Opinion provides a platform for diverse opinions on current affairs and matters of public interest.

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official LBC position.

To contact us email views@lbc.co.uk