UK and Germany defence pact a positive step - but how much substantial change will it actually bring?

23 October 2024, 15:36

William Freer examines what changes the new UK and Germany defence pact could bring.

The Defence Secretary, John Healey, joined his German counterpart, Boris Pistorius, today at Trinity House to sign a ‘landmark’ new pact between the two countries to further strengthen defence ties. Developing a strong bilateral relationship with Germany has been in the sights of Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government since its election in July.

But now that the contents have been published, how substantial is the Trinity House Agreement in practice?

Both Britain and Germany are the biggest military spenders in Europe. At a time when war rages in Europe with Russia continuing its aggression against Ukraine, closer military cooperation with countries across Europe has become a key cornerstone of British foreign policy.

While the treaty is positive for military investment, it is worth remembering that Germany underinvested in defence for decades, and has only recently cleared the NATO minimum target of spending 2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defence.

Trinity House follows other defence deals signed since 2010 between the UK, Germany and France as well. This includes the Aachen Treaty signed in 2019 between France and Germany.

While back in 2010, there was the Lancaster House Treaties bringing together the defence coordination of the UK and France. The new agreement builds on these efforts to boost cooperation between the traditional big three European militaries.

Though in the years since 2010, and especially in the last two years, Poland has made significant strides on its defence posture (it will spend 5% of GDP on defence in 2025) and will soon be the top land force in Europe.

Some of the key announcements made today include German P-8 maritime patrol aircraft using Lossiemouth – where the RAF already operates this model – as a base for operations across the high north, collaboration on new long-range strike weapons (though the impact this may have on building up existing missile stockpiles remains to be seen), and both militaries working more closely together with the aim of further strengthening the NATO’s eastern flank.

It also presents a chance to boost the UK economy with more jobs and investment flowing into British industry, with a new facility for the production of gun barrels announced.

Much of what has been agreed makes great sense for the shared strategic interests of London and Berlin, but given the buildup to this deal there is surprisingly little new.

Most of the contents have been known about for some time or built on existing contracts and agreements in the past. Something which remains unclear is the extent to which deeper collaboration might push Germany to unlock further aid, in particular its Taurus missiles, for Ukraine. The Labour government should be pushing hard for this.

William Freer is a Research Fellow in National Security at the Council on Geostrategy.

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