Trump’s shift on Ukraine: America's new approach to NATO and global diplomacy

15 February 2025, 11:20

.“Operation Minimise” were words feared by every British serviceman and woman in Afghanistan. This was the call to cut communication home until the families of wounded or killed soldiers were notified of their loved ones’ situations

But why were British and other NATO armed forces in Afghanistan at all? Because the USA invoked NATO Article 5, which pertains to collective self-defence, following the 9/11 attacks in New York.

America’s NATO allies responded to their call. The UK lost 457 troops killed in action; Canada 159; France 90; Germany 62; Italy 53; Poland 44; and Denmark 43. Even Ukraine, not a NATO member, deployed medics and training teams to Afghanistan.

Following Trump’s announcement yesterday, it appears that this sacrifice counts for nothing in America’s eyes. Trump is signalling that the USA intends to negotiate directly with Russia, sidelining any Ukrainian input regarding the future of their own country.

This bears historical parallels. It is most reminiscent of Czechoslovakia in 1938. At the Munich Conference, Germany, Great Britain, France, and Italy convened to determine the fate of the Sudetenland without Czechoslovakia’s input. Prior to the Munich Conference, Churchill wrote to David Lloyd George: “England has been offered a choice between war and shame. She has chosen shame, and will get war.”

It appears that President Trump has made the same shameful decision regarding Ukraine. He has chosen to disregard his NATO allies and President Zelenskyy. It seems probable that Putin will retain Donbass, Crimea, and Luhansk.

History teaches us the consequences of appeasing dictators: more conflict further down the line.

The ramifications for NATO are severe. In 1994, Russia, the USA, and the UK promised to uphold Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for Kyiv relinquishing its nuclear weapon capability. We made commitments to Ukraine, and President Trump has chosen to break them.

That is not to say that mistakes have not been made since the Russian invasion. The West provided Ukraine with too little equipment, too late. The Ukrainians themselves made a mess of their 2023 Summer offensive. We can even suggest that NATO’s cowardice in fearing to engage Russia with direct military force has emboldened Putin. That Western mismanagement has extended the war, however, is no excuse for throwing Ukraine under a bus.

Trump maintains that Europe’s security is Europe’s problem, which is a death knell for NATO. After 1945, the USA grew rich from trade during the peace enabled by its security umbrella over Western Europe. The USA traded military force for European acceptance of American global leadership.

This ends with Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine, leaving Europe and the USA weaker and less influential whilst bolstering the authoritarian alliance of China and Russia. It increases the likelihood of global conflict; another lesson from history is that periods of American isolationism have directly contributed to the start of two world wars.

Trump’s long-predicted bombshell over Ukraine leaves Europe with limited options. Even if every other NATO member met its commitment of spending 2% of GDP on defence (only eight do not), European militaries cannot begin to match the USA’s defence expenditure. We have spent decades disarming ourselves; reversing this will take time.

European nations will need to regenerate their military-industrial capabilities, increase the size and equipping of their armed forces, and work to replace US command structures. We will have to reimagine how our nations collaborate on the battlefield without American leadership. At the same time, we will have to resist the siren call of China, which will be delighted to fill the void left by American influence.

Trump is a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing. He ignores the lessons of history. He demonstrates that his NATO allies' recent sacrifices of blood and treasure count for nothing in this new era of American isolationism. He indicates that he prioritises appeasing Putin over the Western democratic allies who have fought and died alongside Americans.

Trump is turning his back on NATO. With an indifferent USA and a powerless Europe, the only beneficiaries will be authoritarian dictators who have been shown that the West will retreat in the face of aggression. By betraying Ukraine, Trump is bringing the world a step closer to global conflict.

Further calls for “Operation Minimise” loom in our near future under this disastrous American presidency.

• Andrew Fox is a Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society

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