Trump may be unpredictable, but Europe should have been prepared

8 November 2024, 11:16

Donald Trump has won a surprisingly convincing victory in the US elections.

He has won the popular vote for the first time to seal one of the most remarkable comebacks in American politics, but many in Europe seem to have hit panic stations over what that means for defence policy this side of the Atlantic Ocean.

Trump may be unpredictable, but the people who will likely be in his cabinet have already laid out a clear sense of direction for US grand strategy. Whatever Europeans make of his domestic politics, his election merely reinforces the fact Europe should have already spent years taking defence more seriously.

‘Project 2025 Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise’ is a mammoth almost 1,000 page manifesto for what those who support Trump would like to do once in power. It is full of ideas many may find uncomfortable, but the chapter on defence should surprise no one. In fact, a Harris victory would have likely seen some very similar approaches.

The overriding principles of a Trump foreign and defence agenda will be to focus US efforts on deterring China and pushing allies to shoulder more of the burden of stopping shared adversaries; namely North Korea, Iran, and Russia. It would have very likely been the same case with a Harris administration.

For many years, it has been clear that most of Europe could and should be spending more on defence. If we do not successfully deter our opponents from attacking us, then it is irrelevant how much we invest in growth or social security.

As we have seen in the horrors of Ukraine, conflict is devastating and it will take almost £400 billion to reconstruct the country (so far). That other shocks to the international system have not been enough to jolt most of Europe out of its strategic inactivity should be a concern. The results of the US election will hopefully push them to do what they should have already been doing.

Indeed, a Trump administration merely confirms what we have known for years. In light of logical American priorities, Europe should have made itself less reliant on US military force for its security.

The path ahead for European countries should be to invest in defence to better shoulder the burden of collective security (and to continue to supply Ukraine with the arms it needs), and to not cosy up to China.

You wouldn’t think that would be difficult, but the panic we have seen suggests many of the politicians across Europe are still desperate to avoid doing either of those things.

Countries like Poland and Sweden have led the way in how to act, Britain should join them in showing the continent the way forward.

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William Freer is a Research Fellow in National Security at the Council on Geostrategy.

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