The UK is stuck in a morass of mediocrity triggered by indecisive action over two decades
17 February 2025, 07:28
The observations I am about to make about the quixotic, enigmatic and unorthodox behaviour of the 47th President of the United States – Donald J Trump - will not include any personal criticism.
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It goes without saying that I despair at the undiplomatic comments, promulgated by his ‘Sirah’ - Vice-President JD Vance, that Europe should ‘clean up its own mess’, whilst serving notice that the US is likely to declare UDI on Europe and the UK, in terms of the defence. The US is also threatening to withdraw its unwavering support of Ukraine against tyrannical Russian aggression.
JD Vance’s visceral comments on the dilution of freedom of speech and democracy in the UK and Europe were, in many ways, 'a bridge too far.’ It was unnecessarily provocative; Not the narrative one wants to hear from a supposedly the closes of allies.
Let’s face it: the Trump presidency has tipped a few controversial boulders in the water to get a seismic ripple reaction and how! The likelihood of very many of these threats, plus the implementation of trade tariffs and immigration initiatives, as currently set out, coming to fruition is limited. This feels like a high-class game of poker to me, though extremely uncomfortable and disrespectful to Europe’s leaders.
However, what has impressed me is that President Trump appears to be a man on a mission. Someone who is frustrated with inertia and will not countenance indecision or lack of achievement. President Trump has skin as thick as a rhinoceros. He is impervious to criticism and is ambivalent to adverse outrage to his highly controversial political and economic policies. One thing is for sure – he’s prepared to ‘kick backside.’
There is no doubt that the President has capitalised on the resentment felt by voters in many democratic countries at the lack of their achievement over the past couple of decades. These voters are also frustrated that their respective governments are stone-deaf to their needs. Certainly in the UK, we could use some of that ‘Trump chutzpah.’
The UK is a classic example of dismay; people are angry and in despair. Nothing works. Public services are in a dire state of disrepair. There is no money. The system is broken. Education, care in the community, and local government are moribund due to a lack of funds. The defence of the realm needs to be increased from 2.3% of GDP to 4% preferably yesterday. Where is the money going to come from?
The UK has 9.3 million aged between 17 and 55 years of age displaced in its economy. Some retired early after Covid. Some are mentally ill. However, a decent chunk need to be encouraged to get back into the workplace – by a combination of ‘stick & carrot.’
Waste and cuts in the public sector need to be implemented. The Civil Service are insulted by being referred to as the ‘Blob.’ There are some fine civil servants but as a group, they need to implement the Government’s policies with greater zest and efficiency.
The Government probably has no fiscal headroom and seems short of ideas as to how to stimulate business and it appears to have no appetite for risk. Without quantified risk being taken by the government and business, the UK will never get out of this debilitating malaise.
Governments must realise that successful and profitable businesses create an increased level of taxation, which will help fund the decimated public services. Further taxation seems inevitable whatever Messrs Starmer and Reeves say to the contrary – probably fuel taxation and maybe a penny on income tax.
However, the ‘Oliver Twist begging bowl’ routine has run its race unless there is evidence that opportunities are being created to deliver better standards of living and wealth. The Public sector is not a wealth creator. It is a beneficiary. The more business and the creation of wealth are encouraged, the more the public sector will benefit. It’s not rocket science; it's fact!
The house building initiative (1.5 million in this Parliament) is laudable, but there are inadequate carpenters, plumbers and bricklayers to deliver this worthy cause. Where are the apprenticeships?
It appears superficially that the previous Tory administration and the current government have no idea how to kick-start an economic revolution, which will change the negative attitude so many people convey towards life and achievement.
During my life, the only times I can remember the UK being in a shoddier parlous state came from the IMF’s intervention in 1976, deftly handled by Denis Healey, the ‘winter of discontent’ in 1978/9, the banking/credit crisis in 2008/9 and Covid19 in 2020, when the whole world was totally unprepared for it. The cost to the country in 2020 was prohibitive. At least jobs were saved and the economy recovered strongly, but the extra £400 billion of debt has made a terrible rod for the Government’s back. The recovery process in 2021 saw UK GDP up 8.6% against Germany up 3% and France up 7%.
The NHS has had billions thrown at it in recent years. However, immigration and people living longer seem to have taken their toll. Its management seems unimaginative and incapable of dealing with the crisis. Many have hopes that Health Secretary Wes Streeting will inevitably ‘put up the white flag’ and surrender to a joint approach from the public sector and private enterprise to revitalise this service.
The Government deludes itself if it thinks it can be run on a party political basis. The NHS employs 1.5 million people, only surpassed by the Chinese military and the Indian Railways as an employer. The NHS is crying out for a fresh approach.
Regardless of voting intentions, all decent people want the Government to succeed in delivering a better life for everyone. The findings that only 41% of Gen-Z were patriotic and proud to be British, down from 80% a decade ago, was a dispiriting finding. The ‘JOHN BULL’ pride is bursting to get through from under the surface.
However, the government needs to change its attitude towards business. It must give so many wonderful small businesses, many of them tech the encouragement to spread their wings and create wealth. The City of London, much of it in its shell at present, is desperate to come back into full bloom. It is probably the UK’s most prolific asset. However, it needs those vital ingredients – encouragement and positive sentiment, to make a huge contribution.
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David Buik is LBC's Markets Commentator.
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