The Case for Optimism in Ukraine

24 February 2025, 19:15

Ukraine’s sovereignty can be protected and Russian aggression stopped.

President Trump’s outlandish statements about Ukraine have sent shockwaves around the world.

From labelling President Zelenskyy a “dictator” to warning he “is not going to have a country left” – Trump’s commentary has sparked consternation and grave concern among world leaders across the globe.

Many fear that Trump is gearing up to betray Ukraine for Vladimir Putin. But if we strip back the fiery rhetoric, and consider the underlying facts, a different and unexpected picture emerges: Ukraine is not Trump’s to give away.

Trump’s negotiating tactics have been unspeakably hurtful to Ukrainians who have sacrificed so much to defend their freedom. His claims that the Ukrainians are responsible for starting the war, or that President Zelenskyy wants to “keep the gravy train” of foreign aid running are grossly inflammatory. But so far, at least as reality is concerned, Trump’s bark is worse than his bite.

At the time of writing this, he has not stopped the supply of arms to Ukraine nor disconnected Starlink – despite relentless public attacks on President Zelenskyy.

While Trump’s push to strike a deal with Russia has rattled Europeans, and stoked fears their security will be irreparably weakened, there may be a method to his madness.

By echoing Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric and making egregious claims against Ukraine, Trump has brought Putin to the negotiating table. This may be due to competent psychologists advising Trump’s team, or his intuitive approach to a megalomaniac psychopath as an interlocutor, but the fact remains.

Putin has taken the bait – and by drawing on sympathetic language, Trump has tempted Putin into the talks. Putin’s domestic propaganda machine, that just weeks ago called for a direct missile strike on Washington and its allies, is changing tack so fast that heads are spinning.According to some well-placed sources, there is a new popular word now in Putin’s security services circles - “Ourshington”.

Alexander Bortnikov, the head of Russia’s FSB, has told journalists that contacts between the U.S. and Russian intelligence and security services have never actually stopped. With this weirdest bromance in full swing, Trump has to come up with a deal or risk the most grotesque and humiliating public failure right in the beginning of his presidency.

And the Ukrainians have obviously figured this out. President Zelenskyy has remained cool, calm and collected, politely rebuffing outlandish statements and made-up statistics thrown up at him.

The indisputable reality is that whatever Russia and the U.S. may agree between themselves, unless it suits Ukraine and its people, no deal will happen.

Moreover, whether by design or not, the public circus that is taking place has united the Ukrainian people and Ukrainian political opposition around President Zelenskyy, giving him leverage when he needs it most.

A February poll found his approval rating to be at 57%, even before all the recent bruhaha.

The shuttle diplomacy has begun, and the discussions remain in the early stages, but there are two outcomes that are now looking increasingly possible.

The first and more likely outcome would be a cessation of fighting along the front line. Ukraine will never recognise the occupied territories as Russian.

But, over the years, via diplomatic effort, or perhaps after the death of Putin, Ukraine will work on getting them back. Ukraine will remain sovereign and independent, and its people will have agency and self-determination.

Ukraine will start the process of joining the EU, and, eventually, in one or two U.S. Congresses, will start the process of joining NATO. Its immediate and long-term security will be assured not as much by the very likely foreign contingent on the ground, but by the vast U.S. economic interests poised to enter the country.

It is one thing to bomb a Ukrainian factory, and very much another to bomb a U.S.-owned one. This investment, coupled with comprehensive modern reconstruction, will bring economic growth, employment and development to Ukraine.

Ukraine will also have the opportunity to pursue war criminals in the international courts and actively seek compensation for the unspeakable hardship the country has suffered since the war began. Kidnapped children, civilians and prisoners of war will be returned and reunited with their families.

In whichever way this outcome will be spun by Putin’s propaganda machine, I am sure they will succeed. Those Russians who can think for themselves and have at least some disposable income will be happy to just have their credit cards working again and to get visas to the U.S. and direct flights to Europe.

In the second outcome, no deal is reached in these negotiations and the war continues. While this will be hard on Ukrainians, they appear more determined than ever.

The Ukrainian army is evolving into one of the most effective fighting forces in the world, and their drone warfare capabilities are second to none. Even if the U.S. stopped all of its aid, if we judge by the recent jump in the shares of German defence supplier Rheinmetall, help will continue coming from Europe.

The EU has over €200 billion of frozen Russian assets and should the events take this terrible course, these funds will be used to power the Ukrainian war effort. Concurrently, the EU will spend more on defence and will re-establish its military capability in light of the Trump administration’s apparent unreliability as a security partner.

The Russian economy is a bubble with the Central Bank base rate at 21% , rampaging inflation, rapidly dilapidating infrastructure, banks and the Ministry of Finance being quietly bailed out by the Central Bank which keeps printing money and consumer business collapsing.

Russian economic growth figures are a fiction based on military production which contributes nothing to the economy but further inflation. Russia also faces a workforce crisis, with a severe lack of employable hands both for the front and for the domestic economy. Should this war of attrition continue, Russia will find itself ill-equipped to outlast the Ukrainians.

This war of attrition will be Russia’s second Afghanistan. It was terrible on the Afghans, but guess what, their country is still there, while the Soviet Union exists only in Putin’s feverish dreams.

No matter which of these paths history takes, our support for Ukraine now is more important than ever. We must continue imposing pressure on our politicians to stand firm for freedom, democracy and international rule of law.

Ukraine is fighting for all of our peace and prosperity, and we must be there to help Ukraine win.

Lubov Chernukhin is Soviet-Born British Businesswoman. She is the largest female political donor in UK history.

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