Starmer is facing one of the most difficult challenges a Prime Minister can experience, and he's only a month into the job
6 August 2024, 15:02 | Updated: 6 August 2024, 15:06
Sir Keir Starmer's chief of staff Sue Grey drew up a list before the general election.
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The list of all the different crises that could hit when the party entered government. Pithily dubbed the s*** list. Prison overcrowding was on it. As was the potential collapse of Thames Water. And public sector pay negotiations.
What was not on the list was the senseless killing of three young girls; subsequent riots in cities and towns across the United Kingdom; and the owner of X, Elon Musk, predicting civil war in Britain. The new government did not see these coming.
The business of governing is unpredictable. As someone who used to work in No10 said to me, you need to be “lucky, flexible, well-informed, prepared to act early”.
“Take Covid,” they added. “Everyone knew a pandemic was due to hit the world. No one knew what form it would take. If you prepare for every possibility expected and unexpected - you bankrupt the country. So you prepare for what you can anticipate.”
We are now a week into these riots.
There have been Cabinet and Cobra meetings. Sir Keir has spoken to the nation most days, in press conferences and Downing street addresses.
He has promised swift justice, to do "whatever it takes to bring these thugs to justice". Announced a standing army of specialist police officers, a new violent disorder unit, and 24 hour courts to process these criminals quickly.
And yet - at least for now - the violent unrest - continues.
This morning, Former Metropolitan Police Commissioner Sir Paul Stephenson told us he was
“not hugely impressed with politicians using strong phrases to show they’re in charge”. He added that he thought “communities expect the full force of the law to be used against thugs irrespective of who is motivating them”.
“But that’s something that should be in place 24/7.”
This isn’t a problem of the government’s making. But it is an immediate test for them. And they will be desperate to bring the riots to an end as quickly as they can.
These are currently smaller than the scenes seen in the 2011 London riots. Then 4,000 people were arrested. This time around, that number is in the hundreds.
But many across government have drawn comparisons between the handling then and the handling now. Sir Keir was of course the director of public prosecutions then.
“Who is better suited to it than the man who locked up the 2011 rioters?” one government source said to me.
Another insider said “it helps that Keir has direct experience of 2011. I think he was very quick to see that this could escalate and tough action was required early.”
Following the election, I understand, Sir Keir’s team have been thinking about how to take on the populist threat from both Reform and the Greens. Some insiders think the riots have made that an immediate challenge.
Lots of commentators and some politicians have, while condemning the violence, argued it stems from legitimate grievances about immigration and integration. When riots spread through France 5 years ago, President Macron embarked on an effort to understand the motivations and show rioters he was listening to their concerns.
Starmer has taken a different approach. He has refused to accept there is any legitimate motivation behind the violence. Instead, he’s sought to isolate the rioters from the majority of the public, and paint them as mindless thugs.
Another obvious difference between now and 2011 is the role of social media. Many believe it has had rocket booster effect on the riots, being used to organise the riots and stoke the hatred behind them.
We are still months away from Ofcom’s powers from the online safety act taking place. The DSIT secretary Peter Kyle hauled in tech bosses yesterday - and Downing Street slapped down X owner Elon Musk - but just saying social media companies need to do more won’t make this problem go away.
This concoction of problems that the riots have thrown up means it’s unsurprising that the former No10 advisor told me “the challenge faced by the police is now like a version of Whack a Mole”.
The first hundred or so rioters have now been charged. Sir Keir said in 2011 that swift justice was a deterrent. He and his government will be desperately hoping that proves to be true now.
Because there are very few things more worrying to a nation than riots on the streets.
