Starlink and Europe’s digital weakness: How reliance on Musk’s network leaves Ukraine vulnerable

20 March 2025, 08:56

Europe’s diplomatic headaches are mounting by the day. Relations between the continent and the Trump administration increasingly resemble the chaos of a Facebook comment thread – chaotic, combative, and often devoid of decorum.

For weeks, speculation swirled that the Trump administration was considering using Starlink as a bargaining chip to pressure Kyiv. Elon Musk dismissed the claims, but the rumors refused to die, eventually drawing in Polish officials and escalating into a public spat.

The controversy erupted into a heated exchange on social media over the past weeks between Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Musk himself. Sikorski warned that Poland would seek alternative providers if SpaceX proved unreliable, prompting a dismissive response from Rubio, who demanded that he "say thank you" for Starlink.

Musk escalated the confrontation, mocking Sikorski as a “small man” and insisting there was no substitute for his satellite network.

This isn’t the first time Musk’s control over Starlink has raised alarms. He previously admitted to refusing to activate Starlink over occupied-Crimea to block a Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s Black Sea fleet, claiming he wanted to avoid complicity in what he called a “major act of war.”

Concerns over Musk’s erratic influence have led Ukraine to seek backup options. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed that Kyiv is already exploring backup satellite communication systems, though details remain undisclosed.

Meanwhile, Italy is already reconsidering a €1.5 billion deal with Elon Musk’s Starlink for military and government use, citing shifting U.S. commitments to European security, including Ukraine.

Now, the Franco-British satellite operator Eutelsat may be a potential alternative to Starlink for Europe and Ukraine.

But, replacing Starlink poses significant logistical and financial hurdles. OneWeb, which merged with Eutelsat in 2022, charges around $10,000 per terminal – far costlier than Starlink’s $600 per unit – making large-scale adoption prohibitively expensive.

Ukraine currently relies on roughly 40,000 Starlink terminals, while Eutelsat has only a few thousand in stock and would need to scale production rapidly to meet demand.

To understand the potential impact of losing Starlink, the author interviewed Ukrainian soldiers who rely on Starlink daily for their perspective.

Illia from the 13th National Guard Brigade (Khartiia) emphasized how important Starlink is to Ukrainian soldiers, stating that without internet access at frontline positions, operations would revert to early 2022 conditions, relying on radio communication for targeting, which would significantly slow down response times.

“There are so-called Wi-Fi guns that allow for maintaining a connection, but their speed is insufficient for live transmissions,” said Illia.

Illia also pointed out that the loss of Starlink would be disastrous if it happened unexpectedly, though he believes Ukraine’s leadership is preparing for such a scenario. He referenced reports that France is developing an alternative system and planning to provide 10,000 terminals to Ukraine.

"Starlink terminals and radios are what we rely on," said Mario from the 23rd Mechanized Brigade. "We use LTE connectivity as well, but only where cell towers exist, we even fly drones over LTE sometimes. Starlink is absolutely critical, and replacing it quickly would be impossible. All live drone video feeds depend on it."

"There are other communication options, like military-grade LTE (4G) networks, satellite terminals from other manufacturers, Two way satellite communication, and state-encrypted systems," said Yuriy. "But they’re not as widely available."

"If we lost Starlink, transitioning to alternatives would take weeks," said Yuriy. "That delay would seriously impact combat effectiveness."

"All alternatives to Starlink are far less common and significantly more expensive," said Mario. "That’s why they are rarely used."

As a backup plan without Starlink, Dmytro, from the 413th Separate Battalion of Unmanned Systems, said they would rely on radios and retransmitters. However, he emphasized the limitations: “With standard radio signals (like Motorola devices), we can’t stream 4K video like we do with Starlink.”

While alternative radio systems exist, they fall short of Starlink’s capabilities. "There are alternative radio systems like Silvus, which can provide a stable video signal and allow high-quality drone streaming. But Starlink is the foundation. We don’t go on missions without it. A drone flight without live-streaming to command posts and allied units is useless," he added.

Some Ukrainian units have explored other solutions where Starlink is unavailable. "Datagroup provides an alternative, and most units in the Kursk region use it since Starlink doesn’t work there.

However, speeds are much lower, and scaling this solution across all defense forces is impossible due to production capacity limits," he explained.

Another option is two-way antennas, but installation is complex and vulnerable to Russian attacks. "You run fiber-optic cable to a village 30 km from the front, mount an antenna on a tower, and set up a receiver 5 km from the frontline to pull internet.

It works, but it's a hassle to install, and Russians often destroy antennas. Plus, terrain must allow for a clear radio horizon," Dmytro noted.

If Starlink went offline at any point, the impact would be severe. "There’d be months of disorganization as units switch to backup channels and reestablish coordination.

How bad it gets depends on each unit’s communications officer. Front-line breaches are possible, but it wouldn’t be an immediate disaster," he warned.

Beyond logistics, alternative providers may struggle to match Starlink’s scale. "The key question is whether they can support Ukraine’s massive user base while maintaining speed. Starlink has thousands of low-altitude satellites, frequently replacing them due to losses.

Their user load in Ukraine is higher than anywhere else. We push hundreds of terabytes through a single terminal monthly. In 2022, speeds were 150 Mbps – now we’re lucky to get 30 Mbps," he explained.

Ultimately, while the ideal scenario would be a European alternative free from U.S. political influence, Dmytro sees no reason to abandon Starlink if it remains functional. "If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it," he concluded.

David Kirichenko is an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

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