Ten years on from the Scottish independence referendum anything is possible in Scottish politics

17 September 2024, 19:03 | Updated: 17 September 2024, 19:05

Ten years ago today Scots went to the polls to choose whether to stay in or leave the UK.

We all know the result, but the question has never gone away.

Defeat for the Yes campaign was not the fatal blow those in the No camp had hoped.

And without a doubt the divisions that the campaign to stay or go revealed in Scotland remain to this day; it has cast a very long shadow.

Those who wanted Scotland to leave the UK still describe 2014 as a national celebration of democracy; those who thought the UK was “better together” to coin a campaign name, recall it as a time of deep distress where friends and families turned on each other.

Of course, ultimately it was the Nos which won it, but the reaction from the Yes side was not one of the defeated.

While David Cameron took to the No10 lectern the day after the independence referendum declaring the matter settled as 55 per cent of Scots had voted No, compared to the 45 per cent who voted Yes, Alex Salmond was in Bute House offering up his resignation, while also declaring the “dream would never die”.

We all know which one was correct.

There was nothing settled at all. And as a result, the independence question has loomed over everything else that has happened in Scotland, and indeed the UK, ever since.

Even in defeat the SNP saw a massive surge in support. Membership soared to more than 125,000, Nicola Sturgeon was hailed as a cult hero, addressing massive audiences in Glasgow’s Hydro concert hall, independence supporters keen to know how to further their cause despite that 2014 setback. And at the 2015 General Election her party won 56 of Scotland’s 59 constituencies.

That result, she said, was a democratic mandate for another go at a referendum, but she held her fire until the result of the 2016 Brexit vote. For while Scots voted to remain in the EU, the majority of voters in England and Wales did not. This was the trigger Nicola Sturgeon needed - it was a material change to what Scots had been offered in 2014, namely continued EU membership.

Theresa May, the then PM, said now was not the time. And so a cold war was established between the Scottish and UK governments - no matter who was in No10 - the former pushing at the boundaries of devolution until, in the instance of the Gender Recognition Reform Bill, they broke. All of that in the hope it would show those Scots still not decided on independence how vital it was.

Meanwhile the UK government adopted a brand of “muscular unionism” determined to stamp a Union flag on policies and projects funded by UK government monies - that was how the Levelling Up agenda with Michael Gove at the helm was to operate. Any suggestion of another referendum was laughed out of the room.

It was also a successful move for the Scottish Conservatives - while the SNP continued to discuss independence, so did they, rallying the No voters to their side, and winning enough votes in Holyrood elections to remain as the second largest party.

And yet. While Sturgeon’s own personal support continued unabated, especially throughout the pandemic, support for independence itself ebbed and flowed, never much varying from that 45 per cent, and nowhere near the sustained 60 per cent once floated as another potential trigger for a second referendum. Those Scots who voted No were unmoveable.

Her last throw of the dice was to go to the Supreme Court in 2022 and ask it to rule, once and for all, on the legalities of the constitutional settlement; could the Scottish Government hold its own referendum without Westminster’s agreement? The judges, like the people of Scotland in 2014, said No.

There was a suggestion afterwards that a General Election result should be used as a defacto referendum. It didn’t go down well with the SNP members or indeed the party’s crop of MPs which had fallen to 44.

And then Nicola Sturgeon quit.

In the battle to replace her it was revealed that membership had collapsed from its great height in 2015 to 70,000.

Not a number to be sniffed at, but perhaps indicative of people falling out of love with her and her party. Certainly, there had been internal strife which previously kept under wraps spilled out into the open during the leadership campaign.

Operation Branchform, the police investigation into party finances, also left the electorate looking anew, and askance, at the SNP.

This year’s General Election saw the culmination in all of that with the SNP being reduced to just 9 MPs. John Swinney, who now leads the party, needs to rebuild and fast ahead of the 2026 Holyrood elections if he’s not to face a similar result then.

On independence he is as staunch as he was when he joined the party as a teenager.

He, like Alex Salmond, like Nicola Sturgeon, does not believe the 2014 result settled anything. Indeed the opinion polls suggest support for independence is closer to 50 per cent - even if support for the SNP has fallen dramatically.

But Keir Starmer has been clear he sees no need for another independence referendum - why would he when Scotland just voted in 37 Labour MPs?

But he is all too aware he has to deliver for Scotland if he’s to ward off any demand for independence in the coming years.

Quite what that will look like is not clear - the decision on axing winter fuel payments for none but the poorest pensioners has not gone down well in the country which feels the cold most keenly.

The SNP of course is hoping it’s moments like that which will shore up their support in 2026.

So, ten years on the debate on independence is not over and done with, not while Scots continue to vote for the SNP in large numbers.

As pollster Mark Diffley says the debates around the independence referendum are still shaping Scottish politics.

“The referendum went on to dominate how we voted in pretty much every form of election, I would argue, until this year,” he says.

"But over time, the NHS and schools have replaced the constitutional question as the real barometer around which people will decide how to vote.

"But the fact that we've still got 45% and upwards supporting independence suggests this is not an issue that's dealt with in the long term.

"There currently is no vehicle for achieving a second referendum either legally or politically, because the SNP is weak. It's likely, I would say - at this stage - to be voted out of government.

"And you've got a UK Government that has no interest in re-litigating this issue. But still nearly half the population would vote for it.

"You’d be a fool to think that's a done deal - anything with that level of support is something that should have red lights flashing for unionist parties.”

The big question then for independence supporters is will they, in another ten years’ time, have convinced a majority of Scots to think the same way they do, or will they just be marking the 20th anniversary of the 2014 referendum with fondness, while the rest of Scotland grapples with its present.

In Scottish politics absolutely anything is possible.

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Gina Davidson

Scotland Political Editor