Kyiv’s answer to NATO uncertainty: A homegrown arsenal of deterrence

3 March 2025, 09:09

'If we are not invited to NATO, we must build NATO on our territory,' said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in an interview with The Economist on February 12.

“If we are not invited to NATO, we must build NATO on our territory,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in an interview with The Economist on February 12. His remarks came in response to signals from the Trump administration that Ukraine would not be joining the alliance.

Since 2022, Ukraine has steadily expanded its ability to strike deep into Russian territory, refining its long-range capabilities in the process. In his New Year’s address, Zelensky highlighted these efforts, stating that Ukraine now produces over a million drones annually while ramping up missile manufacturing, calling them Ukraine’s "arguments for a just peace."

Now as Ukraine enters its fourth year of war, long-range strike capabilities have become a cornerstone of its defense strategy. They are central to its effort to build NATO within its own borders.

While Western military aid remains critical, Kyiv’s ability to produce its own missiles is emerging as a key pillar of deterrence and a way to impose greater costs on the Kremlin. This shift in focus is also evident from Ukraine’s Western partners as Sweden’s latest $1.2 billion military aid package earmarked $90 million for Ukraine’s missile and drone production.

Ukraine has concentrated its attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, particularly oil refineries – the backbone of Moscow’s war effort. Drone and missile strikes have already knocked out 10% of Russia’s refining capacity, exposing the Kremlin’s vulnerability as it remains deeply reliant on oil revenues to sustain its war effort. Bill Browder noted, “Putin is bluffing with a bad hand.”

Four major Russian oil refineries have suspended operations following Ukrainian drone attacks over the past month. Repeated strikes over the past year have pushed Russia’s average daily crude oil production to a 20-year low, while also helping bring Russia’s refining capacity to its lowest level in 12 years. Ukraine has expanded its targeting beyond refineries to oil transport hubs, explosives factories, and ammunition depots.

Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center and a former adviser to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, highlighted the broader impact of these strikes: “Russia’s oil industry is a crucial pillar of its economy – oil and petroleum products account for the bulk of its exports.” Kuzan further added that disrupting Russia’s refining capacity drives up domestic fuel prices, increasing economic strain and public discontent.

While Moscow has found ways to circumvent Western sanctions, Kuzan notes that it has no effective countermeasure against Ukraine’s evolving drone capabilities. Each successful strike erodes Russia’s war economy, making it harder to maintain supply chains, sustain mobilization, and manage domestic stability.

The pressure is mounting. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking after the opening of peace talks with the US, condemned Ukraine’s drone attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, stating: "This should reinforce the view that Zelensky and his team must be restrained and have their hands tied."

Ukraine’s drone campaign is likely to intensify. A Ukrainian drone unit commander leading these strikes explained that their primary goal is to disrupt logistics hubs, destroy ammunition warehouses, and ease pressure on the front lines. With drones capable of reaching 2,000 km (1,240 miles), Ukraine can now hit deep inside Russia – an ability that continues to grow.

With limited supplies of Western long-range missiles, such as ATACMS and Storm Shadow, Ukraine has prioritized rebuilding domestic production. As a result, Kyiv has set an ambitious goal: producing 3,000 long-range missiles by the end of 2025. Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov reinforced this commitment, declaring, “2025 will be the year of the Ukrainian cruise missile.”

Yet missile production is inherently more complex than drone manufacturing. While Ukraine has successfully scaled up drone production, missile development requires specialized production lines, precision engineering, and secure manufacturing facilities—difficult to establish in wartime.

Nonetheless, Ukraine has made significant progress in developing its own weapons, despite wartime conditions. Several domestically produced systems are now in deployment. The Neptune, originally an anti-ship missile, was repurposed as a land-launched cruise missile that reportedly sank the Moskva in 2022. The Hrim-2, a hypersonic ballistic missile, passed testing in late 2024, while the Palianytsia, a missile-drone hybrid, entered serial production in December.

The Ukrainian military has also recently received its first batch of Peklo (hell in Ukrainian) missile drones, long-range munitions with a 700 km range and a jet engine reaching 700 km/h. Developed by Ukroboronprom in under a year, they are already in combat use and reportedly rival Russian cruise missiles at a fraction of the cost.

Further expanding its arsenal, Kyiv unveiled the Trembita light cruise missile in February. Designed for deep strikes, Trembita offers a low-cost alternative to Western munitions at just $4,000 per unit.

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has called domestic missile production essential for strategic independence, stating: “Our priority is the development of domestic drones and long-range weapons, including ballistic missiles.”

With Western aid uncertain and NATO membership out of reach, Ukraine's path to building a stronger domestic deterrent against Russia depends on expanding its missile and drone production.

After surrendering its nuclear arsenal under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum—with security assurances from Russia, the US, and the UK—Ukraine was also left outside NATO’s protection in the decades that followed. Now, Kyiv must develop a strong long-range strike capability to raise the cost of war for Moscow. By producing its own arsenal, Ukraine can bypass external restrictions and ensure it has the firepower to strike where and when necessary—on its own terms.

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David Kirichenko is an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society. He can be found on Twitter/X @DVKirichenko.

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