Does Starmer need Scotland for a Labour win?

28 June 2024, 19:26

By Gina Davidson

@ginadavidsonlbc

We’re into the last great heave as parties go all out in the final few days before the polls open - and before every postal vote gets sent off.

SNP leader John Swinney, freed from the constraints of Holyrood sitting during this campaign until yesterday, has launched a bright yellow battle bus, aiming he says to very visibly take his party’s message to all parts of Scotland. The election in England is over, he declared as he hopped aboard, but the fight for Scotland is still on.

And without a doubt Scotland has been, and still is, a key battleground in this campaign, not just for the SNP but for Labour and indeed the Conservatives - all of which means Scots are having a very different election to the rest of the UK.

While the pollsters in England argue about the size of Labour’s majority, in Scotland they will tell you this is the most competitive election for decades. And it’s true. Since Nicola Sturgeon stood down the SNP has been seriously weakened through internal turmoil, external police investigations, and the fact that people are now very much looking at their domestic record and asking if it’s good enough. 

Meanwhile Labour, once so dominant in Scotland but reduced to just one MP until winning the Rutherglen by-election last year and doubling its quota, is resurgent. The seats which once went from red to yellow across Scotland’s central belt, could well flip again. If one seat in Glasgow goes to Labour, then like dominoes they may all fall. The parties are fishing in the same voter pool and with independence way down voters’ list of priorities, that becomes even clearer and makes the fight more intense.

Of course if the SNP vote holds up better than the early polls suggest, then it could well be a trickier night than Labour expects. The SNP has trailed Labour in the polls since January, but it has more recently closed the gap and one poll this week had them neck and neck. Their message to those soft SNP voters attracted by the idea of voting Labour is that Keir Starmer is winning anyway, he doesn’t need Scots’ votes - but the SNP does. 

But does he? How important is Scotland for a Labour win? And do Scottish votes really influence the outcome of general elections? 

Last week Keir Starmer made his third visit to Scotland during this General Election campaign. He has said time and again that he needs to win MPs in Scotland to win the election - and to have a mandate to govern the whole UK. There’s no route to power that doesn’t go through Scotland he has declared.

But that question of the importance of Scots’ votes has raged in Scotland long before Starmer ever thought about a political career. Scotland never gets the governments at Westminster that Scots want, goes the cry - that’s the so-called democratic deficit that led to devolution and the creation of the Scottish Parliament.

It is not strictly true of course. Out of the 18 General Elections since 1945, the winning party at Westminster won the Scottish popular vote 12 times - that’s two thirds of the time. What’s more true is that if you removed Scottish votes from the equation altogether, then there would have only been four times when that would have fundamentally changed the outcome. 

In 1964 for instance, Labour won a slim majority and without Scottish MPs there would have been a hung parliament, with the Conservatives the largest party. More recently in 2010 the Conservatives would have had a majority if Scotland’s MPs didn’t exist. Instead there was a coalition.

Even in 1997, Tony Blair secured his majority on seats won in England alone. Scottish Labour MPs were surplus to that majority requirement - but without a doubt Scotland got the government it had voted for.

To put the Scottish effect into context, there are 84 parliamentary constituencies in the South East of England - 72 held by the Conservative party - and 57 in Scotland. But, it could well be easier for Labour to convince Scottish voters to give them a change than those in Kent, so Starmer would say a big rise in the number of Scottish Labour MPs could help him win, if he fails to gain enough in places like Kent and Sussex.

For Starmer though it’s not just about the numbers. While he would dearly love to see Labour sweep across Scotland’s central belt again as in days of old, if his party gets MPs in double figures, it will be a huge breakthrough after years of SNP dominance. It will also allow him to be able to say to any SNP Scottish Government seeking discussions about independence, that they don’t represent Scotland’s voice on that in the same manner they could once have claimed. That is precisely the SNP’s fear if they do see a collapse in support.

Starmer wants a mandate from Scotland, to seal the deal as a PM for the whole UK. And let’s not forget the emotional pull many in Labour have to Scotland, given it’s where the party’s roots lie. Of course the debate on the importance of Scotland to electing the UK government always intensifies when Conservatives are in power. Especially as they have not received more than 50% of the Scottish vote in a general election since 1955 - indeed since 1974 they have never achieved more than 38%. 

Polls right now have them waxing and waning between 14 and 11 per cent. The party started the campaign in buoyant mood, believing it could buck the trend across the rest of the UK and hold on to their Scottish seats, pinning its hopes on the unionist vote, but with Reform UK making inroads in Scotland and hitting their vote share, they are now worried that will let in the SNP in the north east and possibly even the Borders. So while the SNP may lose MPs in one part of Scotland, they could well pick them up elsewhere.

Ultimately it’s true that Keir Starmer can win, and win big, without turning the tables on the SNP in Scotland. But his party has an eye on the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections already, and if it fails to see a real breakthrough in this election, then it will be very worried about changing its fortunes in Scotland in two years’ time. For Labour Scotland is vital for its long term future. For the SNP, it’s vital to hold on to as many seats as it can, for its long term goal of independence. As ever the future of the UK is at stake.

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