Israel’s Strategy Is Forcing Hezbollah into Tough Decisions

19 September 2024, 13:00

Maintenance of Morale is one of the key principles of war.

In many ways, the deep infiltration of Hezbollah’s supply chain and communication systems is a direct assault on Hezbollah’s cohesion and will to fight. These pager attacks will have a profound psychological shock on the organisation.

Israel has been targeting Hezbollah commanders for months, but now their foot soldiers will have lost all sense of psychological safety. They will feel that Israel can target them anywhere and by means they do not expect. Tunnels and shelters are no use when basic equipment might explode in their hands.

This attack means that Hezbollah itself must have been infiltrated by Israeli intelligence. This will lead to a sense of distrust and paranoia within Hezbollah itself. It damages their sense of invulnerability and places tremendous pressure on Hezbollah’s leadership.

These attacks directly challenge their control and ability to protect their fighters. Having no trust in their communications systems will also make command and control far more difficult for Hezbollah’s leadership and will make it far harder for them to fight effectively.

More painful will be the international embarrassment. With both Western and Arab social media alight with memes mocking Hezbollah, in an Arab context where strength must be seen, Hezbollah will feel obliged to attempt a response. However, Hezbollah has already fired over 9,000 rockets at Israel since October last year: there are not many escalation options on the table.

As with their proven recent inability to respond in strength to the assassination in July of their second-in-command, Fouad Shukur, Hezbollah’s leadership may feel a sense of frustrated impotency. In that instance, Hezbollah prepared a mass missile and rocket attack on targets in Tel Aviv that was immediately destroyed by the Israeli Air Force before launch.

The pager explosions, combined with air strikes and the move northwards of the IDF’s elite 98th Division, will place Hezbollah under significant pressure to back down.

Israel is presenting Hezbollah with a choice: cease rocket fire into Israel or face a ground invasion. It remains to be seen if psychological pressure will be enough to turn the dial.

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Andrew Fox is a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, specialising in the Middle East, Defence, and Disinformation.

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