Heathrow’s crisis shows black swan events are no longer rare - so why are we always caught off guard?

24 March 2025, 13:56

Heathrow’s sudden closure following a devastating electrical blaze sparked chaos and disruption for hundreds of thousands of people worldwide.

While passengers’ travel plans were thrown into disarray, the consequences extended far beyond the terminal. With flights grounded and cargo delayed, businesses face stalled production lines, supply shortages, and missed shipments.  It’s a stark reminder of the fragile supply chains underpinning our global economy.

But should we really be surprised?  There’s a growing sense that unpredictable events with extreme consequences – often described as ‘Black Swans’ - are becoming increasingly frequent.

Last year, global supply chains faced severe disruption when a tanker brought down the Baltimore Bridge, in the US, crippling port access and interrupting global trade.  In recent years, we’ve seen a global pandemic bring economies to a standstill, the CrowdStrike cybersecurity incident paralyse IT systems and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spark geopolitical turmoil.

So why do unlikely events, with cascading impacts – such as the Heathrow incident – seem to be happening more frequently?

Part of the answer lies in the fact that we live in a world that is more complex and interconnected.  Financial markets, supply chains and transport networks, are interwoven more tightly than ever before.

This global interdependency means that even small triggers in one part of the world can have outsized consequences in others.  A local disruption – such as the Heathrow power outage – that might once have been limited, can now have significant global impacts.  The fallout of failures is faster and more far-reaching, rippling across industry sectors and country borders.

But that doesn’t mean we are powerless in this more complex world.  However, it does mean that we have to rethink how we manage risks, and build resilience to the unexpected.

As an insurer in the 300-year-old Lloyd’s of London market, we’ve spent more than a century helping people and businesses navigate the world’s most complex risks – insuring everything from satellites to sport stars.

Our teams of underwriters, modellers, and claims experts work to anticipate the impact of events from hurricanes to conflicts helping organisations better understand, predict and protect themselves from the risks they face.

What we’ve learned is clear: those that recover quickest when the unexpected strikes are those that prepare.

Whether a small retailer or global manufacturer, resilience begins by identifying risks, understanding potential impacts, and putting response plans in place.

The Heathrow incident is the latest reminder that we live in an age of rising risks. The key is to plan – and stay one step ahead.

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Sam Phibbs is Head of Catastrophe Research at MS Amlin.

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