Has Starmer scuppered Sarwar's chances of a Labour win in Scotland?

21 February 2025, 08:40 | Updated: 21 February 2025, 16:02

Labour party delegates gathering today in Glasgow should be in fine fettle. But they arrive knowing that their party is in a dogfight until next May when voters go to the polls to elect the next Scottish government.

Last year’s conference saw them on a high and champing at the bit for a general election. They got one of course and saw their UK party leader, Sir Keir Starmer, land in No10.

At that moment, anything seemed possible. Scottish Labour had returned 37 MPs to Westminster, a huge leap from the one MP they had before until that Rutherglen by-election saw the party double its numbers. They had seen the SNP humbled, reduced to just nine MPs, and no longer the third largest party in the Commons. The belief in Labour ranks that this was the launch pad for Anas Sarwar to become the next First Minister of Scotland was palpable.

Seven months on and while there will be much applause in the SECC for the conquering MPs, underneath the hail fellow well met bonhomie, there is concern.

Opinion polls of late have seen the party slide - the latest one showing that there could be just 18 red-rosetted MSPs returned to Holyrood at the next election in 2026, which would be the party’s worst performance of the devolution era. The polls have also shown a surge in support for Reform UK and the Scottish Greens are also climbing, and they suggest the SNP would comfortably win the election its fifth in a row since 2007, which would mean it would have spent more than two decades in power. Anas Sarwar’s vision of standing on the steps of Bute House is slowly dissolving.

The finger of blame is pointed squarely at the Prime Minister and his Chancellor and the series of “difficult decisions” they have taken. Basically the scrapping of the winter fuel payment for thousands of pensioners, the refusal to pay Waspi women compensation, the keeping of the two-child benefit cap, the hike in employers' national insurance contributions, and the lack of action on saving the 400 jobs at the Grangemouth refinery, have all contributed to a growing discontent in Scotland with the new UK Labour government.

Scots are feeling scunnered - especially those aged over 55 (support for Labour has dropped in this age group from 30 per cent to around 13 per cent) and right now they are turning against Anas Sarwar.

These decisions are also catnip for the SNP who had been concerned that Labour in Westminster could undermine their support, but instead can once again throw that old criticism it levels at Scottish Labour - that it has no real power, it is nothing more than a branch office.

There has been some anger in Scottish Labour that there’s been little discussion with the party before such decisions were made. They are clinging on to a belief that there’s “something big” coming down the line which will change all of this. No one seems to know what that is, though - perhaps Keir Starmer himself will reveal all when he addresses the conference.

One big decision Sarwar has made though is to change policy on gender recognition. He says now that he would not support legislation to reform the Gender Recognition Act - and that he backs the nurse at the centre of a tribunal against NHS Fife over single-sex changing rooms. It is a volte-face that has left many women who campaigned against the GRR Bill flabbergasted, even if they welcome the change of heart.

But the cynics among them wonder if it has anything to do with a sudden backing for women’s rights or seeing Reform UK rise in the polls. Without a doubt, the issue will be discussed at length in the conference fringe events and the bars outside the venue.

Sarwar will deliver his conference speech today - and he knows the pressure is on to make an offer to Scottish voters. The focus will be on the NHS, he will say a Labour government in Holyrood would tackle waiting lists by reforming health boards and sending patients elsewhere in the UK for treatment. He also wants to end the “8am panic” to try and get a GP appointment by renegotiating the GP contract.

This pitch to fix the number one priority of voters, will, he and his advisers believe, halt the disillusionment felt by those who are tempted by Reform UK.

They also don’t believe the opinion polls are accurate. Certainly despite the SNP being ahead, Labour has won 19 of the 34 council by elections held since the General Election. John Swinney’s party has won just five.

Defeating the SNP is still Scottish Labour's focus - it wants to stop the Holyrood election from becoming a referendum on Starmer’s government instead Sarwar and others want the focus on the SNP’s domestic record. John Swinney though has a war chest of a budget, ironically thanks to Rachel Reeves' decisions to spend more on the public sector saw the Scottish block grant rise substantially, and he intends to splash the cash, particularly on the NHS.

If he gets those waiting lists down as pledged, that could blow another hole in Scottish Labour's chances.

Right now though, Sarwar's fingers are crossed that the bad news from Westminster is over and he can start to rebuild. Whether Scottish voters will be willing to give Scottish Labour a hearing after the first full year of a Starmer government is another matter.

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