George Galloway's Rochdale victory might be a minor historical detail, but the Israel/Gaza conflict could still hurt Labour

1 March 2024, 10:29

By Natasha Clark

@NatashaC

"This is not a typical by-election," political scientist and elections expert John Curtice says this morning to Nick Ferrari in the wake of George Galloway's win in Rochdale.

Still, Westminster watchers were not expecting him to rake in such a huge majority of nearly 6,000 votes over the second-place candidate.

Indeed, there was talk as recently as last week about what would happen should Azhar Ali, the dropped Labour candidate, actually win, such was the uncertainty.

But in the end the bookies were right and Galloway stormed to victory on the back of a pro-Gaza, pro-Palestine and anti-Labour campaign.

While he's unlikely to be in the House of Commons for long, Galloway will want to make his mark.

I suspect it won't be long before he's putting pressure on Sir Keir Starmer publicly from the same side of the green benches.

And for Labour itself, the result should spark a stewards inquiry, and some careful thought.

Why and how was Ali not further vetted before he was allowed to stand, and why did the party rush through the selection before even the funeral of Tony Lloyd?

It will spark a re-vetting of candidates already selected, and force the party to find a new candidate for the next election.

Maybe journalist Paul Waugh could have a shot yet after losing out to Ali last time?

There is always a danger in Westminster of reading too much into individual by-elections.

But a war thousands of miles away is very much affecting our politics here.

The Labour leader will continue to face pressure over his stance on the conflict, both from voters and those within his own ranks.

Sir John says: "You can expect the pressure on Keir Starmer to increase from at least a section of the Parliamentary Labour Party."

Though he has moved towards a ceasefire, critics and those in his party will be pushing him to go even further and openly attack Israel more as the atrocities continue.

The reality of up to 60 Workers Party candidates winning big at the general election is, however, unlikely, especially if Labour continue to enjoy such stonking poll leads.

Independent or pro-Palestine candidates could take a few chunks out of the Labour vote, but most insiders think last night's results were somewhat a one-off set of unusual circumstances.

A perfect storm of losing a Labour candidate, of a huge anti-Westminster mood, and a town severely divided.

Not to mention Galloway's experience in by-elections of successfully tapping into the local mood, exploiting a febrile atmosphere for his own gain, and getting the vote out.

One source says: "Galloway is a complete piece of s**t - but he is also an exceptionally gifted campaigner."

For the Tories, last night showed just the sort of collapse in the vote we might expect from a party doing so dismally in the national polls.

According to Sir John, it was the biggest drop in the vote share at a by-election in this Parliament.

That's probably the only take away from last night which we might see replicated when that general election is finally called.