Forget immigration - the real threat to Labour's future is economic angst
25 February 2025, 13:42
When Labour came into power in July 2024, instead of a political honeymoon, their support has dwindled.
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Reform UK are now in a three-way race with Labour and the Conservatives in opinion polls. The future of British politics has never looked more uncertain.
Many, even within Labour, assume the party’s stance on “culture-war issues” like immigration is to blame. They should look to today’s unexpected news that energy bills will rise by over 6% later this year for an explanation.
Our new research shows that Labour’s support has been dropping among people who feel ‘economically insecure’. These people are worried about their household finances and the cumulative impacts of bills, debts, struggling to make ends meet or not having a savings buffer. Labour already lost votes between June-October 2024 at a greater rate among those who felt economically insecure than those who felt economically secure, 46% compared to 31%.
This is especially potent because age is important to understanding vote choice nowadays, and because of how important age is to who feels most economically insecure in Britain today.
Younger voters are more rooted to political parties such as the Greens or the Liberal Democrats. The Conservatives are holding onto much older voters for now but insecure people on the verge of retiring seem to be supporting Reform. Labour’s greatest hopes are among those around the middle; people aged between around 35 and 59.
It is precisely these mid-life adults who feel the most economically insecure. We see a significant peak in financial worries in the 35-59 group, a significant peak in reported feelings of ‘economic insecurity’, greater worries about debts, savings or income. They have mortgages to worry about, children to provide for, and greater financial pressures on them.
These are the voters all parties hope to win over. And, if someone is in this age group and they feel economically insecure, they are more likely to support a different party than they did in the last election. Reform UK looks to be a beneficiary among people who feel financially insecure within this mid-life group.
Labour’s fall in support is rooted in economic worries. With the Government’s focus necessarily on pressing international concerns, this means more political headaches. Financial security will define our politics between now and the next election.
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Prof Jane Green is Professor of Political Science and British Politics and Director of the Nuffield Politics Research Centre at the University of Oxford.
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