As the dust settles, where do the election results leave the country’s political parties? writes Andy Coulson

5 July 2024, 13:50

By Andy Coulson

The Tories were always going to lose this election, whenever it was called.

But what has turned defeat into disaster is straightforward enough. In the slow-moving car crash of the last five years, the divided party broke trust with the electorate and ceased to be seen as either fair or competent.

But there’s another truth about this historic election result: the British public has definitively NOT fallen in love with Sir Keir Starmer. An expected turn out of 60 per cent and a vote share of around 34 per cent means that only 20 per cent have voted for the man who now has his hands on the levers.

That’s not to suggest that Labour’s ‘just be the other guy’ strategy was anything other than smart and well executed. A positive indication perhaps of the competence and discipline he’ll need in office.

So, what else did we learn? Well, for sure we can conclude that the political stunt is back and in some style. Sir Ed Davey’s ‘look at me!’ campaign has paid off spectacularly. A lesson for the Tories as they choose their next leader who must have a willingness to get out and get noticed.

But they must also choose someone who can take on Nigel Farage and Reform with credibility and, crucially, the right tone of voice. When Farage said overnight that he was ‘coming for Labour’ he, of course, meant that he is coming for the Tories. Farage understands that’s the game to play if he is to progress, stay relevant and keep the media engaged.

And so the Tories must choose a leader who offers a modern contrast to Farage’s backward-looking appeal and who can outwit him on a day-to-day basis. Someone who isn’t afraid to take him on. The Tories have spent a decade misreading and mishandling him. Actually, it’s a fascinating and important intellectual challenge for an ambitious new leader.

And they can do so with a relatively clean slate. Those associated with that five-year failure are largely gone. Boris (at least for now) will be busy making his money. And in a result that perhaps proves that there is a God, Liz Truss is out of Parliament along with man-of-the-people Jacob Rees-Mogg and a host of other tired front-bench faces.

Despite these minor positives, the Tories face an epic challenge to be relevant again. It might be that only one in five of us voted for it, but Britain is Labour again and with a spectacular majority.

Let’s see what they can do with it.

Andy Coulson is the former Downing Street Director of Communications, founder of strategic advisers Coulson Partners and host of the Crisis What Crisis podcast.

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