Britain's latest defence review must be accompanied by a spending boost - and backing Ukraine should be key
16 July 2024, 18:51 | Updated: 16 July 2024, 18:53
The defence review the new Labour government announced this week will be its eighth in nine years.
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It follows the National Security Strategy and the Strategic Defence and Security Review (both 2015), the National Security Capability Review (2018), the Modernising Defence Programme (2018), the Integrated Review and Defence Command Paper (both 2021), and the Integrated Review Refresh and Refresh of the Defence Command Paper (both 2023).
Despite their best intentions, these reviews have been hampered by falling government investment in defence, which fell as low as 2% of national income in the late 2010s (compared to roughly 5% during the 1980s and 3% in the 1990s). This weakened the previous reviews’ attempts to boost Britain’s ability to deter aggression, protect its interests, and leverage defence to enhance prosperity at home.
Today, Britain faces multiple threats from many angles all at once. With Russia’s war against Ukraine, China’s expansionism, North Korea’s support for Russia, Iran’s support for the Houthis, and Venezuela’s threats towards Guyana, the international environment has not been as volatile since the height of the Cold War.
So, there is a case for a new review, especially one led by a heavyweight such as Lord Robertson. He oversaw the last Labour government’s impactful review of 1998. His decisions led to the modernisation of the Royal Navy and the acquisition of two large aircraft carriers and numerous nuclear submarines which provide Britain with the means to lead its allies and partners.
But this review will not be effective without a decisive commitment from the prime minister and the chancellor to invest more in defence. Their ambition to increase spending to 2.5% of national income is laudable, but a timeline is required to reach the target – one which supports the review. Better scheduling for procurement and synergies between the Treasury and Ministry of Defence is also needed to maximise efficiency and reduce waste.
If the government is serious about modernising and restructuring the nation’s defences, it will also need to think harder about how Britain can work with allies and partners. Drawing Poland and the Baltic and Nordic states into the process to augment their capacity to deter threats to NATO, while extracting strategic advantage from AUKUS and the Global Combat Air Programme, should be a priority.
And surging capabilities to Ukraine – the prerequisite for degrading the threat from Russia – should be central. If Ukraine falls to Russia, Pandora’s box will open.
James Rogers is Co-founder and Director of Research at the Council on Geostrategy.
