Biden tactical response in Middle East sparks concerns of escalation with Israel willing to go it alone
3 April 2024, 07:58
- Barak Seener is a Senior Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and the founder of Strategic Intelligentia and the Gulf Futures Forum.
On Feb 3, 2024, in response to the killing of 3 US troops in Jordan, the US struck IRGC command and control headquarters, intelligence centres, rockets and missiles, drone and ammunition storage sites.
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Yet these strikes stopped short of directly targeting Iran or senior leaders of the IRGC’s Quds Force.
The Biden administration would rather de-escalate rather than directly confront the regime and its proxies.
This may not be sustainable as my recently published report ‘Unfreezing the Abraham Accords: A New Transatlantic Strategy for Greater Peace, Stability and integration in the Middle East’ identifies. The US may in the future be forced to formulate an escalatory ladder of confronting Iran.
In the meantime, Israel is demonstrating its willingness to extend its strategic reach by targeting Iran’s consulate and ambassador’s residence in Lebanon.
This led to the killing IRGC members including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a top commander in IRGC’s Quds Force, and his deputy Mohammad Haj Rahimi.
Israel is encircled by Hamas in the South and West Bank, and Hezbollah in the North. As a result, Israel is willing to assume the role of security guarantor by confronting its adversaries wherever they may be.
Iran is likely to respond by unleashing its proxies including Khatib Hezbollah in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen that can target US servicemen and Israel.
In response, the US may be forced to deploy aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean to intercept rocket and missile attacks launched by Iranian proxies at Israel.
The US’s strategic priority is to coordinate military operations closely with Israel, its main ally in the region.
Yet daylight does exist between the two as Israel is frustrated with the Biden administration over a ceasefire in Gaza or the US’s position on entering Rafah.
This is reflected regionally causing Israel not only to stand alone, but willing to go it alone.
