Andrew Marr: 'Starmer's cabinet is sliding into an incredibly dangerous place'
17 October 2024, 17:29 | Updated: 17 October 2024, 18:02
Three Cabinet ministers have written to the Prime Minister protesting about the cuts that their departments are facing in this month’s Budget. In one way, no surprise.
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Life for Labour politicians who have just come into office wanting to spend money and do things but whose leaders have promised not to raise big taxes, and feel tightly constrained on borrowing, was always going to be extremely tough.
In the past even easier budgets were preceded by desperate haggling between the Treasury on the one hand and spending departments which might, just occasionally, have leaked.
But I think this is different. I think the Starmer Cabinet is, right now, sliding into an incredibly dangerous place.
If just a few people in it misplay their hands we could be heading towards a full-blown political crisis which would overshadow and capsize a budget supposed to put set Britain’s course for years ahead.
Let me explain why.
The three ministers, named as Angela Rayner, the Deputy Prime Minister in charge of housing, Shabana Mahmood, the Justice Secretary and Louise Haigh the Transport Secretary, were all allies of and supported by Sue Gray, recently fired as chief of staff by Keir.
Gray had been a supporter of Angela Reyner, who hasn’t had an easy time. And she had been sympathetic to the argument against cuts for the courts and prison systems, and in transport.
One senior and experienced Labour politician, who knows all of them, says to me: “this feels coordinated” - though the view from the Treasury is that Shabana Mahmood wasn’t involved in any leaking.
But second, why write a letter directly to the Prime Minister - and leak the fact? One senior Downing Street figure tells me, if they think this is how to get Keir to change his mind, they don’t know Keir.
But maybe that was never the point: a letter written is a letter that can be published – a letter which one day could show the writer to be on the right and noble side of an argument. It’s not just a letter, it’s a weapon.
Third and final point. How do we think Keir Starmer is likely to respond to all of this?
Read more: Starmer 'hit with backlash from Cabinet ministers' over plans to slash public spending in Budget
He is a man who hates leaks, and someone, as a leader, who has been prone to firing. Are we far away from a Cabinet reshuffle? But if the ministers were coordinating, could he discipline just one? Angela Rayner’s reported involvement hugely raises the stakes.
The danger is of an explosive, public revolt against the Chancellor on the eve of her first, historic budget, blowing it out of the water. Do people understand what a dangerous game this is?
I’ve said could. I’ve said might: all of this is still just speculation about what follows if they get this wrong – and by they, I mean the Prime Minister and Chancellor as well as the other ministers.
On the surface it’s been a quiet, unseasonably warm day at Westminster but below it, something big, something dangerous is stirring.
