Rushing through the Chagos deal would be an unnecessary mistake

9 January 2025, 11:54

New governments in the United States and Mauritius mean Keir Starmer must rethink his Chagos Islands deal or risk making an unnecessary mistake.

It has been several months now since the new Labour government first announced they had reached an agreement with the government of Mauritius over the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT). Diego Garcia, one of the BIOT islands, is of great strategic importance due to the military base there, primarily used by American forces. It serves as a key node in the global military presence of Britain and its allies.

When the deal was first announced, a combination of poor communication from Labour and a mix of both legitimate and exaggerated criticisms generated a strong reaction. The original deal however is falling apart and recent reports suggest Labour is rushing to push it through, but this would be an unnecessary mistake.

For the deal to succeed, essentially three parties need to believe it is in their interests: the British public, the American political establishment, and the government of Mauritius.

Elections in the United States (US) and Mauritius have brought in new governments and changed this calculus. The incoming Trump administration opposes to the deal, and the government of Mauritius wants even more money.

Folding to Mauritian demands for greater financial incentives would be a mistake. It could encourage other countries to find or exaggerate disputes with the United Kingdom to use any grey area of international law they can find, in the hope of the Treasury buying them off.

Pushing through the deal knowing the new Trump administration is opposed would also be a mistake. The UK-US security relationship is the closest in the world and vital to national security. With relations already strained between the incoming Trump administration and the Labour government, now should not be the time to rush through such a deal.

To best serve British interests, Labour must learn when to stand their ground with Trump and when not to. Calling out Elon Musk's ridiculous claims about British politics is one case where it is worth standing rm, but the potential fallout over Diego Garcia is simply not worth it.

Labour should instead seek to brush the whole BIOT agreement, which was the legacy of awed negotiations they inherited from the previous government, under the carpet.

A key consideration for getting the deal done was to help win favour with global ‘middle ground countries’ – meaning those not firmly aligned with the ‘West’ or the burgeoning ‘deadly quartet’ of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

But these middle ground countries will continue to work with the deadly quartet, four countries well-known for their disregard of international law and norms, regardless of whether the BIOT agreement goes through or not.

Instead, Labour should allow BIOT to continue to be governed as a British Overseas Territory.

That would then allow them to start to think about a meaningful path forward to reconcile with the Chaggosian diaspora, who seem to have been forgotten almost entirely in this whole affair – and who the Mauritians have shown they care little about.

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William Freer is a Research Fellow in National Security at the Council on Geostrategy

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