Cyber attacks, riots and lies: Leaked documents show step-by-step plan for how Putin could trigger World War Three

15 January 2024, 19:28

Leaked documents show how Nato could respond to World War Three - with a step-by-step plan showing how the West would resist aggression launched by Vladimir Putin.

The plans depict a hypothetical future scenario, where Russia mobilises 200,000 more men as its forces are bogged down in Ukraine.

Putin uses them to launch a spring offensive, winning the war in June in a nightmare scenario for Europe.

Hybrid attacks are then launched on the West, before Russia builds up forces on the border with Nato countries Poland and Lithuania.

Read more: UK to send 20,000 troops to largest Nato military exercise since the Cold War in response to Russian aggression

After stirring up tensions in the Baltics, Nato deploys 300,000 soldiers east on "Day X" as they stare down Russian forces over the Suwalki gap, the region between Moscow's satellite Belarus and its Kaliningrad enclave.

The papers were leaked from the German Ministry of Defence to Bild.

The "Alliance Defence 2025" plans are not an early warning of how events will go - but a hypothetical scenario for decision-makers to consider as they evaluate possible future confrontations with Russia.

A spokesperson for the ministry said: "Basically, I can tell you that considering different scenarios, even if they are extremely unlikely, is part of everyday military business, especially in training."

The scenario sets out a situation where Putin's mobilisation of 200,000 men - something that would prove controversial in Russia - helps achieve victory over Kyiv by June as Western support declines.

Then, in July of this year, Russia launches hybrid attacks on the West, including a cyber campaign. Russian minorities in the Baltics are incited to sow chaos.

Read more: Britain to increase Ukraine funding to £2.5bn, Rishi Sunak announces, as PM visits Kyiv

In September, 50,000 troops are deployed to Belarus, which has all but been absorbed as a Russian satellite state under the leadership of Alexander Lukashenko.

That puts them on the doorstep of Nato countries Poland and Lithuania.

Putin also moves soldiers and missiles to Kaliningrad, its European enclave, as a feint to distract Nato when he instead intends to make a play for the Suwalki gap.

Occupying this narrow stretch of land, some 60 miles wide, would cut off the former Soviet states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from the rest of Nato.

It would also connect Kaliningrad with Russia and its puppet state.

In December, Moscow keeps up its attempt to destabilise the Baltics, stirring up clashes and riots just after the US election.

True to form, Russia would use its status in the UN to claim it is the victim. Under the scenario, Russia accuses the West of preparing to attack it and moves in a pair of tank divisions and a mechanised infantry division in March next year.

Nato then sends 300,000 troops east on "Day X", some point in summer 2025 - and war breaks out 30 days later.

It comes as the UK sends 20,000 troops to take part in Nato's Steadfast Defender exercise, which will see 31 Nato nations and Sweden take part in training.

They will deploy across Europe.