What does Trump's victory mean for Russia-Ukraine war and rising tensions and fighting in Middle East?

6 November 2024, 19:53 | Updated: 6 November 2024, 20:14

Donald Trump's historic return to the White House could dramatically alter the balance of the world stage, with the Republican promising sweeping action in a second administration.

The former president and now president-elect will likely reinstate policies from his first term: a trade war with China, backing of strong-men leaders like Hungary's Viktor Orban and Russia's Vladimir Putin, and a non-interventionist military strategy.

But he is also returning to power with wars raging in the Middle East and Ukraine, and the United States's allies dependent on Washington's financial and military support.

"I'm not going to start wars, I’m going to stop wars," vowed Trump in his victory speech.

"We had no wars, for four years we had no wars. Except we defeated ISIS," Trump says.

Ukraine-Russia

Trump has repeatedly cast doubt on continuing the US' ongoing support for Ukraine which was established under Biden.

As president, he said he would force Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia's Vladimir Putin to stop the war which has raged since Moscow's troops invaded the neighbouring state in February 2023.

"I would tell Zelensky, no more. You got to make a deal. I would tell Putin, if you don't make a deal, we're going to give him a lot. We're going to (give Ukraine) more than they ever got if we have to," Trump told Fox News in July last year.

'I will have the deal done in one day. One day," he added.

Upon the former president's election, Zelensky said he appreciated Trump's commitment to the "peace through strength" approach to global affairs as he welcomed his win.

"This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together. We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump's decisive leadership."

He said "we rely on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States."

No such congratulations were forthcoming from Moscow, where President Vladimir Putin's spokesman declared that Russia-US relations were at the "lowest point in history".

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said: "Let's not forget that we are talking about the unfriendly country that is both directly and indirectly involved in a war against our state."

Fred Fleitz, the chief of staff of the National Security Council in Trump's first administration, told LBC that Trump is “serious” about ending the war in Ukraine.

Pinning the blame for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on Joe Biden, he said Trump was focused on "ending the killing", amid suggesting that he could rely on his past working relationship with the Russian president.

He added: “What we have now by American and British politicians is to dump weapons in Ukraine endlessly but there’s no plan to end the war or to get to a ceasefire, this is not a strategy, this is virtue signalling.”

On whether Mr Trump will pick up the phone to call both Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky to organise ceasefire talks, Mr Fleitz continued: "I do know that Trump wants to settle this conflict before January.

"And one way to do this is to engage in a dialogue and a big problem is there has been no dialogue between Biden and Russia since February 2022."

Bronwen Maddox, director of the Chatham House think tank, has said she thinks Trump will "pressure for some kind of deal" over the war in Ukraine.

"I'd be surprised if he didn't press for some kind of freezing of the conflict ... about where it is now.

"That doesn't mean handing those lands that Russia has captured over to Russia. It could mean some kind of simple ceasefire", with the "status of those lands left to the future", she said.

Ms Maddox added: "The question is whether Trump gives Ukraine a guarantee of American security, either through Nato or directly, because I think, without that, Russia is just going to wait its time and come back."

The Middle East

Israel's wars with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon will likely be one of the most urgent foreign policy issues for Trump's administration.

He has repeatedly called for the war in Gaza to come to a close, saying that he had told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to "get your victory" because the "killing has to stop."

Netanyahu was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Trump, calling his victory "history's greatest comeback".

"Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America," Netanyahu said.

Iran's currency fell to an all-time low off the back of Trump's election victory. The former president pulled the US out of Iran's nuclear deal with world powers in 2018, sparking years of tensions that persist today.

Dr Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow at the Rusi defence and security think tank, told PA that Middle Eastern states will be "bracing" to see how Trump's campaign pledge to end wars will play out on the ground in Gaza and Lebanon and amid the Israel-Iran military stand-off.

"The horrific October 7 Hamas attacks altered the regional status quo, meaning this is not the Middle East that Trump left four years ago," she said.

"Topping a complex list of unknowns is how much leverage Trump will have over Netanyahu, and the extent to which he will manifest that leverage to end Israel's military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, contain regional conflict spillover, and deliver sustainable political settlements."

Ms Maddox said of the Middle East conflict that Mr Trump "could make it worse" or "could just about make it better".

"He could make it worse by siding with the people in the Netanyahu cabinet who favour trying to annex the West Bank and essentially push Palestinians out of lands earmarked for their future land.

"He could make it better. If he wanted to expand on the Abraham Accords of his first term and say: 'Look, the big prize is the deal with the Saudis. Come on Israel, you need to do that.' And that means land for the Palestinians. That would be the more optimistic view for peace in the region, in my view.

"But he clearly doesn't want ... American forces taken up with foreign wars. And soon, there will be a lot of pressure on Netanyahu to shut this down by January."