What to expect at the Tory leadership debate in Scotland

16 August 2022, 14:05

If there's one thing the Scottish Conservative party members will want to rediscover tonight at the leadership hustings in Perth, it is pride.

They will want to leave the town hall with a belief that whoever replaces Boris Johnson in No10 will not embarrass them; will not leave them attempting to defend the indefensible in a country where it is still considered, in many communities, an article of faith not to vote Tory; will not make them put their blue rosette back in a drawer and forget it exists.

It has never really been easy to be a Conservative supporter in Scotland. Devolution has helped the party regain some political influence after years in the doldrums in the post-Thatcher era, and Ruth Davidson, in particular, catapulted it into second place in Holyrood. However Boris Johnson seemed determined to undermine any progress the party believed it had made thanks to countless gaffes and scandals, which ultimately led to the demands for him to stand down as PM.

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Indeed the main beneficiary of Boris Johnson's premiership in Scotland has been the SNP. He has been a great bogeyman to rail against, "dragging Scotland out of the EU" through Brexit, and appearing unable to lead from the front during the pandemic in apparent direct contrast to Nicola Sturgeon (the facts on the numbers of people dying from Covid in Scotland have not undermined that fixed belief in the view of many Scots).

The single issue which has ensured the Conservative vote has held up, is that of the union, or rather that of refusing a second independence referendum.

So while much of tonight's event will no doubt go over the same ground as the other hustings, this one will have a tartan wrapper. Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak will square up on just who hates the idea of Scottish independence the most, and who will be stronger in their dealings with Nicola Sturgeon.

Truss has already laid out her cards - at a previous hustings she suggested the First Minister be ignored, declaring her an "attention seeker". Unsurprisingly Nicola Sturgeon hit back with a revelation about the Foreign Secretary's interest in getting into Vogue magazine. But both know they will have to work together should Truss win. Interestingly after her comments Truss's team were attempting to roll back on the statement, saying she meant ignoring the demands for another independence referendum rather than the Scottish Government itself.

Rishi Sunak meanwhile is suggesting that very thing - he wants Scottish civil servants to be reporting to UK ministers as well as Scottish ones, in an attempt to offer more scrutiny of what the Scottish Government is doing. It is a policy which the FDA, which represents senior civil servants, has said it unworkable. The SNP says it undermines the very devolution settlement upon which the Scottish Parliament is founded.

While all this strong-arming about independence and the SNP is red meat for the Tory faithful, attempts to undermine devolution don't sit easily with Scottish Conservatives. And both contenders need to remember what they are saying will also be seen and heard by the wider Scottish electorate - even those who are not supporters of Nicola Sturgeon or the SNP felt Truss had gone too far in her "ignore" comment. It's not for nothing Scots are known to be thrawn.

Not for nothing has new polling suggested that should Liz Truss win support for independence will rise further than it would should Rishi Sunak win.

We know both will have messages on the Scottish economy. Liz Truss iwants to increase exports of whisky particularly to India. Sunak will paint himself as the man who has ensured the Scottish Government has had its biggest ever budget and of course backed Scottish jobs during the pandemic thanks to furlough. Both are believed to be meeting with businesses, including fishermen, in Aberdeen where no doubt Brexit pledges will be high on the agenda.

It will also be fascinating to see if Margaret Thatcher is mentioned at all. Liz Truss has been accused of attempting to model herself on the PM whom many in Scotland have never forgiven for her economic policies, while Rishi Sunak believes he is the real descendent of Thatcherite policies. Again will that be a message that resonates beyond the room? Unlikely.

Both candidates will also have to remember there’s a lot of autonomy in the Scottish Conservative party and members will want to make sure whoever wins respects that.

While Scottish Tory MPs and MSPs seem evenly divided on who they are supporting - after an initial head start by Rishi Sunak - party insiders say Scottish members will have been waiting for this hustings before casting their vote - so what is said tonight will matter, and it will matter both inside and outside Perth town hall.