US Election night guide: What time do polls close and who is favourite to win?
5 November 2024, 15:52 | Updated: 5 November 2024, 19:23
After months of endless campaigning, election day is finally here and the US presidential race will come to an end tonight.
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Millions of Americans, as well as people across the globe, will wait with bated breath to find out who will be the next commander-in-chief of the United States.
Will it be the Democrat’s Kamala Harris? Or Former President Donald Trump?
It’s time for America to decide and with that in mind, here is your definitive guide to election night.
Follow our live blog for the latest updates and analysis as we head into election day.
You can also join Shelagh Fogarty, Jon Sopel, and our teams across the US for comprehensive election updates and analysis through the night on America Decides.
Watch live on Global Player from 10pm on Tuesday.
How to follow the 2024 Presidential Election
Follow our live blog for the latest updates and analysis as we head into election night.
You can also join Shelagh Fogarty, Jon Sopel, and our teams across the US for comprehensive election updates and analysis through the night on America Decides.
Watch live on Global Player from 10pm on Tuesday.
When do the polls close?
The United States is a big, big country so polls will close at different times throughout Tuesday night.
Polls will start to close at 6pm Eastern Time, 11pm in the UK, in Eastern Kentucky and much of Indiana, two states Donald Trump will be confident of winning.
One hour later, at 7pm ET/12am GMT, the polls will close in a further six states, including the key swing state of Georgia.
Trump holds a slight lead in the Peach State, which Joe Biden won Georgia by just 0.2 points in 2020.
At 7:30pm ET/12:30am GMT, polls will close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia.
Ms Harris has run neck and neck with Mr Trump in North Carolina since entering the race, so it is likely to be an important test for the Democratic candidate.
At 8pm ET/1am GMT, the polls will close in another sixteen states, including the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania.
Many pundits have said the candidate who wins Pennsylvania, will win the White House.
Trump himself said in September: “If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing.
“It’s very simple.”
Somewhat frustratingly, vote counting in Pennsylvania only began today, so it could take days to find out the final result.
Over the next four hours, polls will close in the remaining states across the US, including the battlegrounds of Michigan and Wisconsin.
This will be a do-or-die moment for Ms Harris, who will need to win both states if she has any hope of defeating Mr Trump.
The so-called blue wall of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania collapsed in 2016 but Joe Biden was able to narrowly win it back in 2020, paving his way to the White House.
Ms Harris will be hoping she can do the same tonight.
By 12am ET/5am GMT the polls will officially be closed.
Which states should I look out for?
The United States elects its leaders based on a system known as the Electoral College.
Each state is worth a certain number of Electoral College votes and whichever candidate surpasses 270, out of 538, will win the presidency.
This means a select number of so-called swing states play a crucial role in deciding the next President of the United States.
These are:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Nevada
- North Carolina
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
Perhaps the most important swing state of all is Pennsylvania, where the race is neck and neck.
Many believe whoever wins Pennsylvania, wins the election.
Voters arrive at US election polls in New York City
Who is favourite to win the 2024 Presidential Election?
As millions of Americans head to the polls, the race is too close to call.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck in the polls, with only a few outliers putting one candidate substantially ahead of the other.
However, in recent days a number of trusted polls have put Kamala Harris ahead in several key states.
The Vice President’s campaign was given a major boost on Saturday as Ann Selzer, a widely respected pollster, projected that former President Donald Trump would be losing the state of Iowa to Harris by three percentage points.
"The poll shows that women - particularly those who are older or who are politically independent - are driving the late shift toward Harris," the poll said.
Meanwhile, former Trump staffer and political commentator Anthony Scaramucci told LBC that he believes the Republican will lose.
Anthony Scaramucci: 'Trump is going to lose'
What happens next?
Once the polls close, it could take hours or days for us to learn the final result.
In 2016, it became clear Donald Trump was leading on the night, but in 2020 it took several days for the winner to be announced.
With the vote as close as it is, you might want to settle in for a few days of vote counting.
