Nasa updates prediction of ‘city killer’ asteroid hitting Earth
20 February 2025, 12:57 | Updated: 20 February 2025, 12:58
Nasa have released an update on the 'city killer' asteroid that could hit earth in eight years.
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Nasa have released an update on the 'city killer' asteroid that could hit earth in eight years.
Yesterday, the space agency predicted that there is a one-in-32, or 3.1 percent, chance that the asteroid 2024 YR4 will slam into our planet on December 22, 2032.
Today, Nasa have downgraded the risk, predicting that there is only a 1-in-67 (1.5 percent) chance of the 'city killer' hitting earth.
They announced the news on social media site X, explaining that their new prediction is due to better observations of the asteroid.
New observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 helped us update its chance of impact in 2032. The current probability is 1.5%.
— NASA (@NASA) February 20, 2025
Our understanding of the asteroid's path improves with every observation. We'll keep you posted. https://t.co/LuRwg1eaCv pic.twitter.com/SfZIxflB95
It is believed that the asteroid could be 90m (300ft) wide - the size of Big Ben.
David Rankin, a scientist at NASA's Catalina Sky Survey Project, has projected a "risk corridor" for the asteroid that shows a large stretch of the Earth that could be hit.
The "risk corridor" stretches from South America, across the Pacific Ocean, across south Asia, the Arabian Sea and Africa.
Specific countries that may face impact include Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan and Nigeria.
Where it may eventually end up hitting would depend on the rotation of the Earth at the moment of impact.
Meanwhile an international team are using the James Webb Space Telescope to determine the damage it could do.
The Tunguska asteroid, hitting Siberia in 1908, was also similar size and destroyed 830 square miles of forest.
2024 YR4 was first discovered in December 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile, funded by NASA.
Back then, it only had a 1.3 percent probability of hitting earth but it was still the top of NASA's risk list.
It is estimated that the asteroid could flatten structures for up to two miles in any direction from the impact size.
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It is believed that size estimates could be incorrect.
Determining the size of the asteroid involves looking at it through a powerful telescope, and figuring out the size through the brightness of the light reflected from its surface.
A spokesperson from the European Space Agency said, to the Daily Mail: "Astronomers around the world are using powerful telescopes to measure the asteroid’s orbit as accurately as possible. But knowing its orbit will only tell us the asteroid could impact Earth, not how significant an impact could be.
"It is very important that we improve our size estimate for 2024 YR4: the hazard represented by a 40 m asteroid is very different from that of a 90 m asteroid," ESA added.
The James Webb Space Telescope will solve this problem, as it uses infrared sensors to look at the heat radiating off the asteroid - giving them a more accurate estimate of size.
