Catholics outnumber Protestants for the first time in Northern Ireland

22 September 2022, 16:21

For the first time in Northern Ireland’s history, Catholics outnumber Protestants, according to the latest census figures.

For the first time, census data shows that Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland, while a political academic says Irish unity is a "ticking clock".

The 2021 census shows that 45.7% of inhabitants are Catholic or from a Catholic background, compared with 43.48% from Protestant or other Christian backgrounds. In the last census, ten years ago, 45% of the population identified as Catholic and 48% Protestant - neither bloc is a majority.

Catholics in Northern Ireland have tended to identify as Irish, while Protestants have tended to identify as British.

For decades, a Protestant majority has existed in Northern Ireland, helping to safeguard the nation's position in the United Kingdom. But higher birth rates amongst Catholics has gradually closed the gap.

Diarmaid Ferriter, a historian and author, said: “It’s been long coming. They [Unionists] have already witnessed the loss of their political supremacy. Seeing the loss of their numerical supremacy is another blow.”

But religious background and political identity no longer automatically transferred to voting patterns, Ferriter said. “So much is blurred now.”

Recent elections have seen support for nationalist and unionist parties plateau at 40% for each side, leaving 20% of voters in the middle who are non-aligned and reject the traditional sectarian labels.

Opinion polls repeatedly show more people want to stay in the UK rather than uniting with Ireland, citing taxes and the NHS among other reasons.

But the first census since the Brexit referendum showed a loosening of British identity. The number of people identifying as British only fell from 40% in 2011, to 31.86% in 2020, while those identifying as Irish only rose from 25% to 29.13%.

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However Duncan Morrow, a politics professor at Ulster University, says the change is still a symbolic moment:

“The state was set up to put a protective ring around Protestants. You can’t take away from the symbolic significance of this change.”

In May's assembly elections, Sinn Féin overtook the Democratic Unionist party as the largest party in Northern Ireland, boosting the party's calls for a referendum on Irish unity.

Duncan Morrow said that the fate of a referendum in Northern Ireland may rest with centrist voters, with many feeling Northern Irish as a pose to Irish or British.

Mr Morrow added that young people were keenest on Irish unity: “It’s a ticking clock.”