'Substantial mixing' of people over Christmas could cause 'large increase' in Covid cases

27 November 2020, 15:39 | Updated: 27 November 2020, 22:09

A man wearing a face mask walks past Christmas trees in Covent Garden
A man wearing a face mask walks past Christmas trees in Covent Garden. Picture: PA

By Megan White

Any relaxation of restrictions over the festive period will result in a "large" rise in coronavirus transmission rates and prevalence "could easily double", scientists advising the Government have said.

In a set of documents released on Friday, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), which advises the Government, said "substantial mixing" of people over a short period of time represents a "significant risk for wide-spread transmission".

In a meeting on November 18 - a few days before the Government announced that there would be a limited relaxation of restrictions at Christmas - the scientists warned: "The prevalence could easily double during a few days of festive season, with further multiplicative increases as new infections go back to their 'routine' networks."

Read more: PM defends Covid tier system as he faces backbench revolt

Read more: UK coronavirus R rate drops to between 0.9 and 1

This week Boris Johnson told families they must make a "personal judgment" about the risks of coronavirus to vulnerable loved ones when forming a Christmas bubble.

The Prime Minister urged the public to "think carefully" over the festive period after it was confirmed that three households will be able to mix from December 23 to 27.

Nick Ferrari confronts Jenrick on PM's "lie" about Christmas

Earlier on Friday, SAGE member Professor John Edmunds warned there is limited scope for easing coronavirus restrictions in England before Christmas.

He said they will have had little chance to assess how well the new tiered controls were working when they come up for the first 14-day review in mid-December.

Prof Edmunds said: "I think that is quite an early time to be able to see what the effect has been. I think we will still be seeing the effect of the lockdown at that point in time.

"For me I think that is quite an early review stage. I can't imagine there will be huge changes at that point just simply because I don't think we will have accumulated much data by then."

The report came after Boris Johnson defended the new coronavirus tier system, saying it was the only option for Government to avoid "loads and loads of complicated sub-divisions".

The Prime Minister said they were essential to get coronavirus down but acknowledged why people might be "frustrated" by the rules, particularly if they were in an area with low infection rates.

Older caller plans to break Christmas Covid rules

"I know it is frustrating for people when they are in a high-tier area when there is very little incidence in their village or their area. I totally understand why people feel frustrated," he said during a visit to a public health laboratory in Wiltshire.

"The difficulty is that if you did it any other way, first of all you'd divide the country up into loads and loads of very complicated sub-divisions - there has got to be some simplicity and clarity in the way we do this.

"The second problem is that, alas, our experience is that when a high-incidence area is quite close to a low-incidence area, unless you beat the problem in the high-incidence area, the low-incidence area I'm afraid starts to catch up."

The Government is facing anger from Tory MPs and the hospitality sector over the decision to place 99 percent of England into the toughest two tiers of Covid restrictions.

More than 55 million people will be placed into Tier 2 and 3 from Wednesday, meaning mixing between households indoors will effectively be banned for the vast majority of the country.

MPs want to see more evidence from the government on the decision-making process behind the new Tiers.

More Latest News

See more More Latest News

Proud Boys claim they will go to voting places as Trump repeats election fraud lies.

Proud Boys making plans to mobilise as Trump repeats election fraud lies

File photo of a real NHS dentist

Desperate Brits fall for scam 'fake NHS dentists' amid years-long waits for appointments

The Kremlin is suspected of plotting the attack

'Parcel bombs' that blew up in warehouse were 'rehearsal' for Russian explosion attack on flight to US

Keir Starmer is not set to ban smoking in pub gardens, contrary to earlier reports

Cigarettes will not be banned in pub gardens under new Labour plan create 'smoke-free generation'

Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Reading, Pennsylvania

Trump threatens Mexico with 100% tariffs unless it cracks down on border crossings

Bridget Phillipson told Tonight with Andrew Marr that the fee hike was necessary to secure the future of universities.

‘Universities must reform’ says education secretary after first hike in tuition fees in 8 years

Two more cases of a new strain of mpox have been detected in the UK, officials say

Two more cases of new mpox strain detected in UK

Anya Taylor-Joy and her musician husband were the victims of a terrifying robbery

Anya Taylor-Joy and musician husband victims of burglary at London mansion

Exclusive
Nigel Farage speaking to LBC's Nick Ferrari about new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch

'The Remainers are back in town': Nigel Farage says Kemi Badenoch will bring 'no change whatsoever' to Tories

Amy Dowden

Strictly Come Dancing star Amy Dowden will not return to show this year following 'medical emergency'

Scott Paterson murdered his landlady Annette Smith

Tenant murdered and dismembered elderly landlady before posing as her by sending Christmas cards to family

Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel and Mel Stride will all serve in Kemi Badenoch's Shadow Cabinet

Kemi Badenoch names former leadership rivals Robert Jenrick and Priti Patel to Tory Shadow Cabinet team

Bridget Phillipson has confirmed the tuition fee rise

University tuition fees to rise for first time in eight years, as Tories accuse Labour of 'declaring war on students'

Sara Sharif had suffered dozens of injuries in the weeks leading up to her death, a court has heard

Video of Sara Sharif smiling and dancing 'days before murder' shown to court

Transport for London (TfL) has warned passengers that no Tube services are expected on Thursday 7 November

November Tube strikes to bring London to a halt this week despite RMT calling off action

Stuart Gogg during the Six Nations rugby match between France and Scotland in Saint-Denis, 26 February 2023

Former Scotland rugby captain pleads guilty to domestic abuse over five-year period against former partner