Schools reopening could see 'significant surge' in Covid cases - expert

2 September 2021, 23:50 | Updated: 2 September 2021, 23:53

Schools are returning this week with much of last year's restrictions, such as mask-wearing, removed
Schools are returning this week with much of last year's restrictions, such as mask-wearing, removed. Picture: Alamy

By Daisy Stephens

A "significant surge" in coronavirus cases is expected in the UK as schools reopen, a leading expert has said.

Professor Neil Ferguson, whose modelling was instrumental to the UK going into lockdown in March 2020, said if daily cases start going above 100,000 to 150,000 there will be "significant demands on the health system".

The scientist, from Imperial College London and a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said it is too early to say whether that might mean the relaxation of restrictions needs to be rolled back.

He said it will be for the Government to decide on potential measures and would not be drawn on what form they might take.

Read more: Government scientists receive 'suspicious packages' and abuse from anti-vaxxers

Read more: 'Not good enough': UK school Covid closures revealed as second longest in Europe

Speaking to reporters during a webinar on Thursday, he said there are concerns about the effect schools reopening could have on virus spread, especially with the more transmissible and now-dominant Delta variant.

He said: "We expect to see quite a significant surge in cases, to some extent in hospitalisations, but whether that's going to require any rolling back of the relaxation of restrictions is too early to say.

"It really depends on the level of healthcare demand."

He said if an unvaccinated population of 5 or 10 per cent all got Covid in a short period of time it would result in a "large healthcare burden, and a large number of deaths" and that it could also "have a risk of significantly overwhelming health systems even in high income countries such as the UK".

Professor explains third Covid jab for those with weakened immune systems

He said it is hard to predict how long any rise in case numbers, as seen in Scotland after schools went back, would go on for.

He said: "Obviously the relationship between case numbers and hospitalisations has changed now, fundamentally because of vaccination.

"So we can cope with much higher numbers of cases per day and still maintain hospitalisations at, well, the Government would say acceptable levels, and deaths would be even lower, but that only holds for so long.

"So if we do get above 100,000/150,000 cases a day, then we start seeing very significant demands on the health system, and it will be up to the Government to decide at that point, or at some maybe earlier point, what the implications are for policy.

"I'm not going to get drawn on what that might be."

Scientists who helped develop vaccine praise Harry’s comments

On Wednesday, the Government said there had been a further 35,693 lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases in the UK.

The figures followed a bank holiday weekend when there is usually a lag in reporting deaths and cases.

Read more: Joe Rogan tests positive for Covid after suggesting young people don’t need jab

Read more: Prince Harry hits out at anti-vaxxers 'who peddle lies & fear' at GQ awards speech

However the Zoe Covid study with King's College London (KCL) estimated there are currently 57,158 new daily symptomatic cases in the UK on average, based on test data from up to five days ago, an increase from around 51,000 new daily cases last week.

On average 1 in 90 people in the UK currently have symptomatic Covid, they added.

Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist on the study and professor of genetic epidemiology at KCL, said: "The UK has enjoyed a restriction-free summer unlike most of Europe and even though a large majority of UK adults are now vaccinated, the rise in cases, as well as hospitalisations and deaths is one of the highest in Europe.

"This is evidence that without at least some restrictions Covid will continue to spread.

"Fully vaccinated people are getting Covid, but not only are they often unable to spot the signs of infection due to the Government's outdated list of symptoms, we've seen evidence that the protection provided by vaccines is wearing off."

He advised people to be responsible in trying to stop the spread by wearing masks, particularly in crowded places, and practising good handwashing and social distancing where possible.

Read more: People aged 12 and over with weakened immune systems to get third Covid vaccine dose

Read more: Portugal to allow non-vaccinated Brits in without quarantine

In contrast, the latest weekly Test and Trace figures showed the number of people testing positive in England has fallen slightly.

A total of 198,626 people tested positive for the virus at least once in the week to August 25, down 1 per cent on the previous week.

The number of people testing positive has been around 200,000 in the five most recent weeks of data.

More Latest News

See more More Latest News

Davina McCall shares health update as she reveals 'short-term memory problems' following brain surgery

Davina McCall shares health update as she reveals 'short-term memory problems' following brain surgery

County Hall Maidstone, Kent.

Labour to abolish 'dozens' of councils in biggest reform for a generation

Southern Row where the shooting occurred

Girl, 8 seriously injured after being 'caught in the crossfire' during double shooting as manhunt launched

Exclusive
LBC’s Nick Ferrari has remembered being spiked while at a party.

‘The whole world was spinning’: Nick Ferrari candidly recalls drink spiking as he shares 'appalling' side-effects

Jess Phillips pledges £250k to curb drink spiking - as she hits out at Tory inaction over women's safety

Jess Phillips pledges £250k training budget to curb drink spiking - as she hits out at Tory inaction over women's safety

Dr Philip Nitschke enters a 'suicide pod' known as 'The Sarco'

Inventor of Sarco death pods say he will bring device to UK - despite first user being found with 'strangulation marks'

UK unveils AI cyber defence lab to combat Russian threats, as minister pledges unwavering support for Ukraine

British spies to ramp up fight against Russian cyber threats with launch of cutting-edge AI research unit

Donald Trump is suing CBS

Donald Trump planning to 'kick transgender troops out of US military' on return to White House

Coleen Rooney revealed details of her encounter with Donald Trump

Coleen Rooney reveals 'dirty' Donald Trump's bizarre request to Wayne as she tells of remark president made about her

Live
Flooding causes havoc in the UK.

LIVE: Storm Bert causes massive rail commuter chaos as 150 flood warnings remain in place

Storm Bert has wreaked havoc

Storm Bert flood chaos continues as new 'danger to life warning issued' after 5 die with more travel misery ahead

Plane crash kills at least one as DHL cargo plane as it smashes into houses on approach to Vilnius Airport

At least one dead as DHL cargo plane crashes into houses during approach to Vilnius Airport

Rachel Reeves' Budget has put business off hiring, a business group has said

Labour's Budget tax raid 'puts companies off hiring' as businesses fear they 'can't afford to take a chance'

Bobby Moore's England World Cup winning shirt has been missing for decades

Bobby Moore's lost 1966 World Cup shirt worth over £1 million 'tracked down 30 years after vanishing'

A former British soldier has been captured by Russian forces while fighting for Ukraine, state media has claimed.

Father of Brit ex-soldier 'captured by Russia in Ukraine' fears son will be tortured and 'begged him not to go to war'

A tractor enraged locals by driving through Tenbury Wells' flooded town centre during Storm Bert

Moment tractor driver smashes waves through shop windows by driving through flooded town in Storm Bert