Road to the White House: The key swing states that will decide the 2024 US Election
5 November 2024, 21:09 | Updated: 5 November 2024, 21:23
As voters across the US cast their votes across the nation today, all eyes are on seven key swing states that will be crucial in deciding who ends up in the White House.
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Swing states earn their name because they will help ‘swing’ the overall result either towards Democrat candidate and current vice president Kamala Harris, or towards her Republican opponent and former president Donald Trump.
While the outcome in most states is easier to predict, the seven battleground states could go either way, with polls showing the two candidates within a few percentage points of each other.
In this presidential race, the critical states are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia.
Together, they represent 93 votes in the electoral college - out of the total of 538. The winning candidate will need 270 electoral college votes or more to win the presidency, with each state allotted a fixed number of votes based roughly on the size of its population.
Follow our live blog for the latest updates and analysis as we head into election day.
You can also join Shelagh Fogarty, Jon Sopel, and our teams across the US for comprehensive election updates and analysis through the night on America Decides.
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Whoever wins the popular vote in a state also wins all of that state's electoral votes (with two exceptions, Maine and Nebraska, where the votes are split on a district and state-wide level).
All but one of the critical states were won by President Joe Biden for the Democrats in 2020, but all are being strongly contested at this election by Mr Trump and Ms Harris.
This means that in some states, a few hundred voters could decide the entire election, as was the case in the controversial election in 2000 when 537 voters in Florida ensured that Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
Here is a closer look at the seven swing states this election, with the most recent polling numbers.
Pennsylvania
Polls
- New York Times/Siena College: Trump 48%, Harris 48%
- Emerson College/The Hill: Trump: 49%, Harris 48%
Donald Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, confounding those who assumed this was a Democrat stronghold, as had been the case at every election since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992.
Joe Biden regained it narrowly for the Democrats in 2020, but polls suggest the outcome this year is on a knife's edge.
With 19 electoral votes up for grabs in Pennsylvania, this is a key target for both candidates.
But due to the huge number of postal and early votes cast, which will need to be sorted and counted, the outcome is not likely to be clear for some time.
In 2020 the state was not called for Mr Biden until four days after election day.
Michigan
Polls
- New York Times/Siena College: Trump 47%, Harris 47%
- Emerson College/The Hill: Trump 48%, Harris 50%
Like Pennsylvania, this was part of the "blue wall" of states that voted Democrat at every presidential election from 1992 to 2012.
Mr Trump's victory in 2016 was tiny - by just 0.2 percentage points - but symbolised the scale of his success in wooing working-class voters away from his opponent Hillary Clinton, particularly in a state that Barack Obama had carried by nine percentage points in 2012.
Joe Biden won back the state for the Democrats in 2020 by a gap of nearly three points over Mr Trump, but opinion polls suggest it will be much closer this time.
There are 15 electoral votes in play here.
Wisconsin
Polls
- New York Times/Siena College: Trump 47%, Harris 49%
- Emerson College/The Hill: Trump 49%, Harris 49%
This is another "blue wall" state that flipped narrowly to the Republicans and Donald Trump in 2016, before switching back - by a similarly narrow margin - to the Democrats and Joe Biden in 2020.
As is the case with Pennsylvania and Michigan, the result in Wisconsin might not be clear for several days, thanks to the volume of postal and early votes that will need to be sorted and counted.
Ten electoral votes are available here.
Arizona
Polls
- New York Times/Siena College: Trump 49%, Harris 45%
- Emerson College/The Hill: Trump: 50%, Harris 48%
In 2020 Joe Biden was the first Democrat to win Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996.
This represented a major turnaround from 2016, when Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the state by more than three percentage points.
Mr Biden's victory was very slim and this year the state once again looks like being a nail-biter, with polls suggesting the outcome is too close to call.
Arizona is worth 11 electoral votes.
Nevada
Polls
- New York Times/Siena College: Trump 46%, Harris 49%
- Emerson College/The Hill: Trump 48%, Harris 48%
Nevada has been won by the Democrats at every presidential election since 1992, but often by close margins - and this year, it could be closer than ever, with polls suggesting the race is effectively tied.
Joe Biden won the state in 2020 by just over two percentage points.
Nevada does not offer a huge number of electoral votes - six - but in a close contest, a victory here could be decisive in helping either Ms Harris or Mr Trump get to the White House.
North Carolina
Polls
- New York Times/Siena College: Trump 46%, Harris 48%
- Emerson College/The Hill: Trump 49%, Harris 48%
This is the one swing state on the list that was won by Donald Trump in 2020, though the result was close, with Mr Trump picking up 49.9% of the vote and Joe Biden 48.6%.
North Carolina has not been won by a Democrat since Barack Obama took the state in 2008 - the first Democrat to do so since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Once again, opinion polls this year point to a close contest, with a valuable 16 electoral votes up for grabs.
North Carolina is the swing state most likely to report prompt results on election night, and as such will give an early indication of how both Ms Harris and Mr Trump are faring.
Georgia
Polls
- New York Times/Siena College: Trump 47%, Harris 48%
- Emerson College/The Hill: Trump: 50%, Harris 49%
Joe Biden in 2020 was the first Democrat to win Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992.
Barack Obama never came near to a victory, and Donald Trump won it by more than five percentage points in 2016.
The result in 2020 was so close that a recount was conducted, with the outcome not confirmed until more than two weeks after election day.
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Just 0.3 percentage points separated Mr Biden from Mr Trump.
Like North Carolina, the state gives its winner 16 electoral votes and opinion polls here, as elsewhere, point to another incredibly close contest.
But polls are only snapshots, not predictions, and ultimately the outcome in places like Georgia may come down to which side manages to get more of its supporters to turn out and vote.
