Spread of Covid-19 in England 'may be slowing'

1 October 2020, 00:01 | Updated: 1 October 2020, 06:08

Early results from the study show around one in 200 people in England had coronavirus
Early results from the study show around one in 200 people in England had coronavirus. Picture: PA
Nick Hardinges

By Nick Hardinges

The spread of coronavirus in England may be slowing down, a new study has found, sparking hopes that new measures to stem the number of new cases are working.

According to the largest Covid-19 study in England to date, infections rose significantly across the nation before England's R number - the rate of infection - dropped to around 1.1

The study also shown that around one in 200 people were infected with the virus, according to early results.

The director of the study, conducted by Imperial College London and Ipsos Mori, said the government's and the public's efforts to control the virus could be working which, he added, confirms the need for such measures.

Nearly a third of the British public have been under some form of restriction since the initial lockdown.

The programme saw more than 80,000 participants tested in England between 18-26 September. It examined the levels of infection in the general population by screening more than 150,000 volunteers each month over a two-week period.

Read more: PM warns of 'critical moment' as he urges public to stick to rules

Read more: Scientists say Covid-19 is 'not under control yet'

Boris Johnson warns of further measures if coronavirus advice ignored

Preliminary results from the study's fourth report - published on Thursday - revealed that roughly 55 people per 10,000 tested positive for coronavirus.

This represented an increase on the 13 per 10,000 in the previous instalment recorded between 24 August and 7 September.

The results published on Thursday suggest around 411,000 people in England had Covid-19 in the relevant time period, meaning just over one in 200 people were infected at the time.

People aged between 18 and 24 showed the highest rates of infection in the study - with one case per 100 people - while infections rose seven-fold in people aged over 65 from 0.04% to 0.29% compared to the last report.

The findings also showed that the north-west of England, where there have been numerous additional local restrictions, had the highest levels of infection while cases in London rose five-fold from 0.1% to 0.49%.

Read more: UK records 7,108 coronavirus cases and 71 deaths in last 24 hours

Read more: Boris Johnson's father Stanley pictured shopping without face covering

Top scientist "concerned" by PM's coronavirus briefing

Ipsos Mori and Imperial's final instalment of the study - with findings of all 150,000 participants tested between 18 September and 5 October - will be published next week.

Professor Paul Elliott, director of the programme at the university's School of Public Health, said: "While our latest findings show some early evidence that the growth of new cases may have slowed, suggesting efforts to control the infection are working, the prevalence of infection is the highest that we have recorded to date.

"This reinforces the need for protective measures to limit the spread of the disease and the public's adherence to these, which will be vital to minimise further significant illness and loss of life from Covid-19."

PM calls for a 'willingness to make sacrifices' during coronavirus briefing

While the study found that the R rate has decreased from 1.7 to 1.1, scientists say this could imply a level of infection deceleration "but with considerable uncertainty".

Half of the volunteers who tested positive for Covid-19 did not have symptoms at the time of being swabbed or the week before, but the study added that this did not mean they did not later develop symptoms.

The study, commissioned by the Department of Health and Social Care, also found people of Asian and black ethnicity are twice as likely to have coronavirus compared to white people.

Kelly Beaver, managing director of public affairs at Ipsos Mori, said: "The continuing support of the public by taking part in the study is something we remain immensely grateful for.

"The number of participants gives this study the robustness and thoroughness which marks it out as world-leading."

Listen & subscribe: Global Player | Apple Podcasts | Google Podcasts | Spotify

More Latest News

See more More Latest News

Weather maps show areas of the UK which could be hit by snow

UK weather maps show regions expected to see heavy snowfall as cold and wintry spell on the way

Cynthia Erivo

Wicked star Cynthia Erivo says feeling like an outsider and 'not fitting in' drew her to role of Elphaba

Robert F Kennedy Jr

Donald Trump picks anti-vaccine activist Robert F Kennedy Jr to lead Department of Health

France and Israel fans clash with police in Paris despite ramped up police presence following Amsterdam unrest

France and Israel fans clash amid ramped up police presence in Paris for UEFA Nations League game

c

'I hope I live to see the day': Ex-political prisoner Vladimir Kara-Murza shares wish to see Putin on trial for war crimes

M5 Motorway, Bristol, UK. 4th July, 2022. A rolling roadblock has been formed to protest the cost of fuel. Protestors have set off from Bridgewater and are holding up traffic by driving slowly along the M5 Motorway. Credit: JMF News/Alamy Live News

Teenager hit and killed in horror M5 collision after fleeing police car named

Exclusive
Putin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza recalls 'longest day of his life' after historic prisoner swap between Russia and West

Putin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza recalls 'longest day of his life' after historic prisoner swap between Russia and West

Mohamed Al Fayed's brother Salah accused of sexual assault and trafficking by former Harrods employees

Mohamed Al Fayed's brother Salah accused of sexual assault and trafficking by former Harrods employees

Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson

Man who turned up outside Parliament in armour carrying samurai swords wanted to 'speak with Boris Johnson'

Basem Naim, a Hamas leader

Hamas prepared for 'immediate' ceasefire in Gaza but claims Israel has not offered any 'serious proposals' in months

London, UK. 9 October 2023. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves speaking during the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool. Photo credit should read: Matt Crossick/Empics/Alamy Live News

Rachel Reeves to 'rip up financial red tape' with pension 'mega funds' freeing up £80 billion for investment

Labour divided over assisted dying as MP who introduced bill hits out at Health Secretary

Labour divided over assisted dying bill as MP tabling legislation labels Wes Streeting's objections 'disappointing'

Reverend Sue Colman was asked to step back after the Makin Report found her and her husband Jason knew about John Smyth's abuse and failed to act

Mustard heir and Church of England minister wife step back from church roles after damning abuse report

File photo of Broadway Market, where the attack took place

Horror as 'man doused in bleach' in busy Hackney market with manhunt underway and attacker still at loose

Former Met Police officer David Carrick pleads not guilty to string of sex attacks including indecent assault against teen

Former Met Police officer David Carrick pleads not guilty to sex attacks including indecent assault against teen

Jack Bradley took part in the failed ram raid

Moment drug addict in 4x4 rams Tesco superstore in failed bid to steal safe, with terrified staff still inside shop