Labour 'on course for biggest election victory in 100 years', as Tories set for worst result since 1906
3 June 2024, 17:52 | Updated: 4 June 2024, 00:35
Labour are set to secure the biggest General Election victory in 100 years, according to a new analysis of 60,000 voter intentions.
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YouGov estimate that Sir Keir Starmer's party are on track to win a majority of 194 seats, second only to Stanley Baldwin in 1924.
The poll has Labour on 422 seats, an increase of 222 compared to 2019, with the Conservatives down 225 to 140.
This result "would be beyond landslide territory," according to the pollsters.
If the polling was borne out at the election on July 4, it would give Labour the highest amount of seats in its history - more even than Tony Blair's party won in 1997.
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Election 2024 - The latest polls
By contrast, a return of 140 seats would be the Conservatives' worst result since 1906, and several prominent Cabinet ministers would be set to lose their seats.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, Attorney General Victoria Prentis, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Welsh Secretary David Davies, and Armed Forces minister Johnny Mercer, are all on course to leave the Commons, according to the poll.
The Liberal Democrats would win 48 seats, according to this prediction, up 37 on the 2019 result.
The SNP would lost 31 MPs, falling to 17 seats. The Greens would double their contingent in the Commons, with two MPs. Plaid Cymru would lose two of their four MPs.
Reform UK would have no MPs, although the fieldwork for the poll was done before Nigel Farage announced he was standing in Clacton.
YouGov said: "With a central projection of 422 Labour wins, this result would be beyond landslide territory.
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"Not only would Starmer’s majority be bigger than the number Tony Blair achieved in 1997 (179), but it would in fact be the second largest majority in British political history after Stanley Baldwin’s figure of 210 in 1924.
"The Conservatives would be reduced to 140 seats, according to our model today. That would be their worst performance at a British general election for the party since 1906 – the first election where the Labour Party, then led by another Keir [Hardie], went into double-digit seat wins [27]."
