Labour need to launch £25 billion tax raid to avoid austerity and keep up public services, top think tank says
10 October 2024, 09:57
The government may needs to raise £25 billion in taxes to keep up spending on public services, a top economics think tank has said.
Listen to this article
Loading audio...
Labour's first Budget on October 30 could be "the most consequential since at least 2010", according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).
Even if Chancellor Rachel Reeves changes her pledge to keep spending rising in line with national income this would do "almost nothing" to ease the challenge on public service funding, the economists said.
Because of her promise to meet day-to-day spending out of revenues, Ms Reeves would still need to turn to tax rises to avoid spending cuts and meet her pledge to borrow only to invest, according to IFS boss Paul Johnson.
The IFS report, done with investment bank Citi, found that if the government does not make cuts to spending outside of public services, she would need a tax rise of £16 billion to remain on course to balance the budget in 2028-29.
Read more: Chancellor to consider slashing 25 per cent tax-free pension withdrawals
Starmer accused of ‘opening the door’ to tax and borrowing changes in Budget
This would come in addition to the £9 billion tax rise from measures set out in Labour's manifesto - adding up to about £25 billion overall.
Labour have promised not to raise income tax and corporation tax or to increase National Insurance or VAT - meaning that finding any tax rises may be difficult.
The net tax rises from the new Labour government in July 1997 and coalition in October 2010 were both around £13-£14 billion.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer did not rule out hiking employer national insurance contributions and changing borrowing rules when challenged by Rishi Sunak at Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday.
The IFS forecast suggests that, even with Labour's planned £9 billion tax rise implemented, trying to balance the current budget while avoiding cuts to public service spending would put the budget "on a knife edge" and highly sensitive to OBR judgments.
To meet this year's pay settlements and avoid making future cuts to public services spending, Mr Reeves would need to top up day-to-day spending by some £30 billion above her predecessor's plans by 2028-29, the IFS estimates.
The Chancellor has warned ahead of her first Budget on October 30 that there will be "tough decisions" but rejected that the country will see a return to austerity.
Polling expert says Labour shouldn't be 'terminally concerned' about their decline in the polls
She and Sir Keir Starmer have said the Labour Government inherited a £22 billion "black hole" in the public finances from its predecessors.
There has been speculation about how Ms Reeves will raise funds after she ruled out raising taxes on working people.
IFS director Paul Johnson said any changes to capital gains tax would need to be a "careful reform" rather than a simple increase. There is also speculation that Labour could make changes to inheritance tax.
The IFS noted that the Chancellor has inherited an "unenviable" public finance situation as taxes are at a historic high and debt is rising, while public services such as prisons, police and local councils are under strain.
Expert says Labour raising fuel duty would be 'electoral suicide'
Mr Johnson said: "The first Budget of this new administration could be the most consequential since at least 2010.
"The new Chancellor is committed to increasing investment spending, and to funding public services. To do so, she will need to increase taxes, or borrowing, or both.
"Taxes are at an all-time high, and she is tightly constrained by her pledges not to raise the main rates of income tax or corporation tax, or to increase National Insurance or VAT at all.
"The temptation then is to borrow more, perhaps changing the definition of debt targeted by the fiscal rules.
"But, given her pledge to balance the current budget, that would not free up additional resource for day-to-day spending and in any case is not risk-free given the dual deficits - that is, both budget deficit and current account deficit - being run by the UK."
Benjamin Nabarro, Chief UK Economist at Citi, said there were "cautious reasons for optimism" in the economic forecast and that there is a notable opportunity for structural reform.
"Unfortunately, large outstanding debt stocks and a current account deficit mean the UK faces budget constraints that many other advanced economies don't. Additional borrowing may therefore have to be used sparingly and reform used creatively."
A Treasury spokesman said: "It's right to say that we have inherited a tough financial position, but we won't let the challenges of the past define our future.
"Despite uncovering a £22 billion black hole in our public finances we are focused on making this the most pro-growth Treasury in history, built on the rock of economic stability, including robust fiscal rules that were set out in the manifesto.
"That is how we will fix our public services and deliver on the promise of change."
