Cuts to foreign aid could cause 2.9 million more HIV-related deaths by 2030, study warns

27 March 2025, 00:51

Deaths caused by HIV infections will rise as a result of cuts to the foreign aid budget, a study has warned.

Researchers have warned the decision to slash foreign aid spending could reverse decades of progress.

Experts estimate there could be up to 10.8 million additional HIV infections by 2030 in low-and-middle income countries as a result of the cuts.

This could result in a further 2.9 million HIV-related deaths in that time period if cuts to foreign aid by five major countries, including the UK and US, are not rolled back.

It comes following the Labour Government’s decision to slash foreign aid budgets to pay for increased defence spending.

Anneliese Dodds resigned as international development minister over the decision, which will see the budget cut from 0.5% of gross national income to 0.3% in the next two years.

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Dodds quits as international development minister over aid cut to fund defence

After taking up post in January, US president Donald Trump also announced a freeze in most US foreign aid spending. He also announced that the US would withdraw from the World Health Organisation.

The USA, UK, France, Germany, and the Netherlands together account for more than 90% of international funding, but they have each recently announced plans to implement significant cuts to foreign aid, the article adds.

This will result in a 24% cut in HIV funding, the study found.

The human cost of these cuts could be between 4.4 million to 10.8 million additional HIV infections by 2030 in low-and-middle income countries.

And between 770,000 to 2.9 million HIV-related deaths in children and adults could occur in the same time frame.

"Unmitigated funding reductions could significantly reverse progress in the HIV response by 2030, disproportionately affecting sub-Saharan African countries and key and vulnerable populations," the authors wrote.

Commenting on the study, the National Aids Trust said it is "extremely alarmed" by the potential impact of proposed cuts.

Daniel Fluskey, director of policy, research and influencing at the charity, said: "These funding cuts will have a devastating impact for millions of people across the world as well as threatening the progress that has been made, both globally and in the UK, on ending the HIV epidemic.

"Like any virus, HIV does not stop at international borders. We will not reach the goal of ending new transmissions by 2030 in the UK with a resurgence of HIV across the world."

Anne Aslett, chief executive of the Elton John Aids Foundation, added: "This report demonstrates the critical and urgent need for donors to recognise the cumulative impact of their decisions to cut aid budgets.

"If funding for the global HIV response falls away to the extent this report suggests it could, millions more people will get sick, and health budgets will simply not be able to cope."

A Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office spokesperson said: "The UK provides significant funding to the global HIV response, supporting work to end Aids-related deaths and prevent new HIV infections.

"We remain firmly committed to tackling global health challenges, not only because it is the right thing to do, but also because it will help us deliver on our Plan for Change in the UK by supporting global stability and growth."