Immigration, the economy and the NHS: The key issues that will dominate election battle
22 May 2024, 18:05 | Updated: 22 May 2024, 21:14
As Rishi Sunak has started the countdown for the general election on July 4, here are some of the key policy battlegrounds the Tories and Labour are expected to go head-to-head on.
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After months of speculation, Rishi Sunak has called a General Election that many expect Labour to win.
But much can change during a campaign that will be dominated by contentious issues and heated debate across the UK.
Here are some of the main policy battlegrounds and details of the positions of the two main parties.
Immigration
Immigration consistently comes in third place in recent polling on voter priorities and is set to be a key battleground in the election campaign.
The Rwanda Bill has become a flagship feature of Rishi Sunak’s government since he stepped up as Prime Minister.
The Bill was passed into law last month and the first flights are set to take place this summer.
This policy and Tory talk of limits on legal migration show the Government is committed to taking a hard line on the issue, despite the risk of alienating more moderate voters.
However, the subject is a dividing line between the Tories and Labour, as Sir Keir has vowed to scrap flights to Rwanda altogether if his party is elected.
Labour has said it is also looking to reduce the reliance on overseas workers and backs a points-based immigration system which it says "would work for workers and businesses".
Sir Keir Starmer has been treading carefully on the issue of small boats, saying crossings needed to be reduced "materially" without setting a target.
He said a Labour government would expand counter-terror powers to cover people-smuggling gangs and create a new Border Security Command to co-ordinate efforts to halt the crossings.
The latest figures on illegal migration don’t reflect positively on Mr Sunak’s government as they are running at a higher rate than any previous year on record.
The number of migrants to have arrived in the UK in small boats across the Channel in 2024 is already approaching the 10,000 mark.
With crossings continuing, the Conservatives may have to rely on the symbolic impact of at least one flight to Rwanda rather than firm evidence that the policy is working.
Economy
Following the shock of the Covid-19 pandemic and a cost-of-living crisis so deep and prolonged that relatively well-off households found themselves in financial insecurity, the traditional dominance of economic concerns during general election campaigns will be reinforced this time round.
Both the Tories and Labour have touted themselves as the party of economic stability and prosperity - which has one of the most significant influences on how voters cast their ballot.
Previous elections show that voters, depending on whether they feel better off or not, will either reward or punish the incumbent government accordingly.
Mr Sunak is likely to point towards Wednesday’s fall in inflation to 2.3%, as it nears the Bank of England’s 2% target, as a sign the economy is on the right track under his government.
However, as Labour is keen to point out, the long period of unusually high inflation has long-term consequences, with lower rates simply adding less to high household costs.
It is likely Labour will ask the public whether they feel as though they are better off after 14 years of Tory rule, with likely nods to Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-budget.
The real challenge for Labour will be how they plan to prove they can achieve different results.
The state of the nation's finances is a key element that both the main parties always claim they can be trusted on, with the Conservative Party historically regarded by voters as the more reliable on tax and spending decisions.
Labour has worked hard to challenge preconceptions and make the most of the chaos by declaring a strong commitment to fiscal caution and a pro-business outlook.
The move by Labour into typically Tory territory has been bold, even if it may not sit comfortably with some traditional supporters.
In response, the Conservatives have sought to cultivate concern that Labour's plans for government have not been funded and would require increased borrowing and likely tax rises.
National debt rose over the course of 2023, and remains at levels not seen since the early 1960s.
The latest figures show the UK's overall national debt was £2.69 trillion in April, or 97.9% of gross domestic product, and 2.5 percentage points more than at the end of April 2023.
Read more: Rishi Sunak confirms General Election will take place on July 4: what happens next?
NHS
The NHS consistently ranks as the second most important issue for voters.
Historically high waiting lists for treatment, ageing infrastructure across the NHS estate and workforce challenges combine to paint a picture of the much-loved health service on its knees.
Cutting NHS waiting times is one of the pillars of Labour’s manifesto, as Sir Keir has promised to cut these waits by hiring more staff and enabling more operations to take place, which he would fund by getting rid of the non-dom tax status.
The Government has made progress in reducing waiting times, but the scale of the problem means the figures remain at a level many voters will be disturbed by.
Local services and levelling up
Public services in general can have a knock-on effect on demand within the health system, as well as serve as a day-to-day reminder of the impact of political decisions in Westminster.
Local government is heavily reliant on central funding and councils are often directed by policy sent down by ministers.
Councils maintain and shape local environments, delivering services that are an important part of everyday life.
Local authorities also play a key role in housing provision, another big national issue, through the planning system and by facilitating development.
The perilous state of some councils' finances, with some already declaring effective bankruptcy, could have far-reaching consequences for communities.
The Government's levelling up agenda significantly raised expectations of the local environments, facilities, services and opportunities being improved in places that had previously experienced little investment.
Therefore, the perceived success or otherwise of levelling up could influence voters.
However, the Government's current spending plans, which Labour has said it will largely stick to if it forms a government, suggest local government funding will continue to be restricted, as will funding for other key public services such as prisons and the criminal justice system.
The environment
While experts remind us of the existential threat posed by climate change, polls suggest the issue is only an important priority for about one in five voters.
However, that is still a significant number of voters and the environment is an issue that concerns people across the political spectrum.
Despite progress in the UK on cutting emissions, the Conservatives will likely have angered many of a green persuasion by introducing new oil and gas licences.
Last year the watchdog the Climate Change Committee described efforts to scale up climate action as "worryingly slow", with Government decisions undermining the UK's leadership on the issue.
Labour has also faced challenges on the environment, particularly after its decision to slash its green prosperity plan from £28 billion a year to £15 billion was heavily criticised by environmental groups and unions.
Trust in party leaders
The individual performances of Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer during the election campaign will be crucial, with many voters likely to be influenced by who they can relate to and trust.
In this regard, the polls suggest both men have their work cut out to persuade many voters that they can be effective, but it is the Prime Minister who the polls suggest is in the most difficult position.
Polling this month by Ipsos suggests 72% of voters are dissatisfied with Mr Sunak's leadership, with 17% satisfied.
Sir Keir has both a higher satisfaction rating of 32% and a lower dissatisfaction rating of 50%.
The General Election will not have the same level of focus on individuals that happens in a presidential system but it will not be far off.
But the battle of the leaders will be crucial, with the one who inspires voters with a clear vision for the future gaining a significant advantage.
