Election night key timings and hour-by-hour guide: When will we know who has won the General Election?

3 July 2024, 15:02

Thursday's General Election night is set to be a long one for everyone working in British politics, and for people following along.

People will be voting all day across the UK, before the vote counting begins up and down the country.

Seats will be declaring all through the night, and a picture of who will be in government next will start to become clearer as the night goes on.

Here we look at what could happen throughout the night.

• Join LBC for Britain Decides our election night coverage, starting Thursday at 10pm. Our flagship program will be led by Andrew Marr and Shelagh Fogarty, with The News Agents' Jon Sopel and Lewis Goodall providing expert analysis as results unfold. This comprehensive seven-hour show will be broadcast live on LBC, Global Player, TikTok, and YouTube, with a simulcast on LBC News. Stay tuned for real-time updates and insightful commentary throughout this pivotal night in British politics.

10pm - Polls close

Voting runs from 7am on Thursday until 10pm that evening. After that it will no longer be possible to vote, and the votes will start to be counted.

At the same time, the exit poll will be published, giving a picture of how the election has gone. In recent years, these have been very accurate at forecasting the result.

That means 10pm will be when we get our first idea of who has won.

11pm onwards - First seats declare

Some time after 11pm, the first of the 650 seats will declare their results. These are likely to be two Labour seats in the north-east: Blyth & Ashington, at around 11.30pm, and Houghton & Sunderland South at around 11.45pm.

Labour's Shadow Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson is defending a narrow majority of around 3,271 in Houghton & Sunderland South.

Blyth & Ashington is a new constituency created by the redrawing of constituency boundaries; Labour has a notional majority of 6,118 there.

The outcome in these seats could give an idea of how Labour will perform in seats where they have relatively small majorities, and more of a picture of how Reform UK have done.

12am-1am - key early seats likely to declare

The first major battleground seat - Swindon South - is likely to declare around 12.15am.

Conservative Former Justice Secretary Sir Robert Buckland is up against Labour's Heidi Alexander, the former MP for Lewisham East. Sir Robert has a majority of 5,650, but this may be the kind of seat where Labour could win easily, if opinion polls are to be believed.

That means that a Labour win in Swindon South could point towards the kind of large majority that many polls have predicted.

Among other seats likely to declare around this time is Basildon and Billericay, where Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden is running for re-election. The seat has a Conservative majority of over 20,000 but some local activists have been dismayed that Mr Holden was made candidate by party officials only a few days before nominations closed.

Broxbourne in Hertfordshire will also declare around this time. The Tories have a majority of over 12,000 in this seat, and have held it continuously since its creation in 1983.

If the Conservatives lose either or both of these previously safe seats, it could signal a seismic reworking of the electoral map.

1am - key Scottish seats

After 1pm, several Scottish seats - East Kilbride & Strathaven, Hamilton & Clyde Valley and Rutherglen - will declare.

These are SNP-held seats that are being targeted by Labour. It is key for Labour to return more MPs in Scotland if it is to return to power with a decisive majority.

Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats could make their first gain of the night in Harrogate & Knaresborough. Sir Ed Davey's party need an eight percentage point swing from the Tories to pick up a seat they last held in 2010.

2am - flow of declarations likely to pick up

Over 60 seats are set to declare between 2am and 3am, with the trickle of results turning into a rush.

Among the key seats to watch around 2.30am is Cannock Chase in Derbyshire, which Labour are hoping to take from the Conservatives. A victory here for Sir Keir Starmer's party could be another sign of a large Labour victory overall. It would be a huge victory: the seat needs an enormous 21.5-percentage point swing to change hands.

George Galloway of the Workers Party will learn if he has kept his Rochdale seat, which he took from Labour earlier this year.

The Lib Dems are likely to find out if they have gained Stratford-on-Avon from the Conservatives. The Midlands seat, held until recently by former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, is a long-shot for the Lib Dems.

Sir Keir will probably hear the result of his own seat of Holborn and St Pancras in central London at about 2.30am. He has a very safe majority of over 22,000.

Mid Bedfordshire - Nadine Dorries' former seat, taken by Labour in October for the first time in its 106-year history - is due to declare around 2.45am. Again, a victory here would suggest Labour are on course for a mammoth victory.

Bolsover in Derbyshire, which went to the Conservatives in 2019, having been held by Labour for the previous 69 years, will be another seat to watch around this time.

Peterborough and Redcar are two more Labour targets due to declare between 2am and 3am, while the Lib Dems will be hoping to hear of a positive result for them in the Devon seat of Torbay.

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3am - busiest time of the night

The hour after 3am will be the busiest period in terms of seat declarations, with around 250 results expected - over a third of all MPs in the next Parliament.

Justice Secretary Alex Chalk is one of the Cabinet members whose place in the Commons is at risk, and his seat of Cheltenham is due to declare around 3am. He has a majority of just 1,421, which could be overturned by the Lib Dems.

The seats of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and Education Secretary could also change hands if Labour and the Lib Dems are having strong nights.

Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader, is defending a tiny majority of 1,604 in his north-east London seat of Chingford and Wood Green. Shama Tatler for Labour and the independent Faiza Shaheen are both contesting the seat, and could split the left-wing vote.

Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn's Islington North seat is due to declare around this time. He is no longer a member of the party and is fighting against Labour candidate Praful Nargund, along with five other candidates, to keep hold of a seat he has held since 1983.

Labour could lose Bristol Central, a new seat being contested by Shadow Cabinet member Thangam Debbonaire, to the Greens. The result is due around 3.15am.

Sir Ed's seat of Kingston and Surbiton in south-west London is also set to declare at around 3.15am. He is defending a majority of over 11,000 for the Lib Dems.

Elsewhere, Ribble Valley in Lancashire, Thanet East in Kent and Scarborough & Whitby in North Yorkshire are all seats Labour needs to win to be sure of a majority in the next Parliament, and are all due to declare around this time.

Meanwhile Tory-Lib Dem battlegrounds such as Eastleigh in Hampshire, Wells & Mendip Hills in Somerset and Newton Abbot in Devon will also all declare, giving more of a picture of how well the Conservatives have fought of the Lib Dem Challenge in southern England.

4am - Rishi Sunak's seat overall result could become clear

The overall result will start to become evident around this time, with about half of all seats due to have declared.

Rishi Sunak will learn his parliamentary fate. His seat of Richmond & Northallerton, in North Yorkshire, should declare at around this time.

Clacton, the Tory-held seat being contested by Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, should declare around this time.

And residents of Ashfield in Nottinghamshire will find out at around 4.30am if their next MP is former Conservative-turned-Reform candidate Lee Anderson, who won the seat (as a Tory) in 2019.

Former Commons leader Jacob Rees-Mogg will learn if he has won the new seat of Somerset North East & Hanham, where the notional Tory majority is 16,389.

The Greens will learn if they have retained Brighton Pavilion, where Caroline Lucas was the party’s MP from 2010 to this year, and where their new candidate is Sian Berry.

5am - key bellwether seat

Northampton North, which has been a bellwether for the overall result at every election since 1974, is expected to declare. Labour needs a 3.9-point swing to gain the constituency from the Tories.

Another key bellwether - Loughborough, is due to declare at around 5.30am; Labour needs a 5.9-point swing to gain the seat from the Tories.

Former prime minister Liz Truss will learn if she has kept her Norfolk South West seat, where she is sitting on a large majority of 24,180.

Two key Labour seats in London - Finchley & Golders Green and Hendon, both held since 2010 by the Conservatives, will also declare around this time.

6am - final seats set to declare

The final seats to declare their results should be Ilford North and Ilford South in east London, which are both safe Labour constituencies.

7am onwards

Where seats have been delayed overnight, they will be declaring later into the day, but there is a good chance that all seats will be decided by mid-morning.