Expert urges against 'flip-flopping' between pandemic and economy

15 November 2020, 07:01 | Updated: 15 November 2020, 07:32

A Sage expert said a long-term strategy was needed for balancing the economy and the pandemic
A Sage expert said a long-term strategy was needed for balancing the economy and the pandemic. Picture: PA
Nick Hardinges

By Nick Hardinges

Encouraging the public to visit bars and restaurants and then closing hospitality after a Covid spike is not a "sensible way to run the epidemic", a government scientific adviser has said.

Professor John Edmunds, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), called for a long-term strategy when balancing the economy and the coronavirus pandemic.

Current national lockdown measures in England mean venues such as pubs, bars and restaurants have been forced to close, but are expected to be allowed to reopen when the restrictions lift.

Prof Edmunds raised concerns about "flip-flopping" between incentives, such as Eat Out To Help Out, and closures.

"We need to take a long-term view and be sensible and realise that we're going to have to have restrictions in place for some time," he said.

"Yes, we can lift them when it's safe to do so, which will be primarily when large numbers of people have been vaccinated.

"But flip-flopping between encouraging people to mix socially, which is what you're doing by encouraging people to go to restaurants and bars, versus then immediately closing them again, isn't a very sensible way to run the epidemic."

Read more: UK records 26,860 new coronavirus cases and 462 deaths

Read more: Christmas 'chaos' at Felixstowe Port due to Brexit and Covid

Sunak: Virus rules have significant impact on economy

It comes as Professor Andrew Pollard, who led the Oxford University and AstraZeneca trial, told The Sun his team were "optimistic" tens of millions of doses of UK-made coronavirus vaccines can start being produced by the end of the year.

Under current plans, a regional tiered system is set to replace the national lockdown when it ends on 2 December.

Prof Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said it was "too early to judge" if this was too soon to lift the current restrictions.

But he said a return to the lowest alert level of the regional tier system, Tier 1, when the lockdown ends would be "very unwise".

"The problem with the tier system is Tier 1 doesn't do much at all, Tier 2 probably has some effect, but not a great deal, and Tier 3 seems to be able to hold the epidemic," he said.

"The problem with the tier system is that inevitably you end up with quite a lot of places with high incidence under those circumstances.

"Because the Tier 1 and Tier 2 ones just eventually drift up into Tier 3 with a high incidence, and then Tier 3 holds it there."

He added: "It wasn't a very well thought-through strategy, frankly."

Nadra Ahmed on new mass testing strategy

It comes after the government said a further 462 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 as of Saturday.

As of 9am on Saturday, there had been a further 26,860 lab-confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK, slightly down from 27,301 on Friday.

The updated numbers come as the Sunday Times reported former journalist George Pascoe-Watson, the chairman of lobbying firm Portland Communications, served as an adviser to a health minister for six months "before sending sensitive information on lockdown policy to paying clients".

The paper said that, on 15 October, he emailed Portland clients to say he had been "privately advised" restrictions in London launched that day would continue until spring 2021, before adding: "Decision-makers have told me personally."

Mr Pascoe-Watson said in a statement provided to the Press Association news agency he had stepped down from his unpaid role with the Department of Health and Social Care by mutual agreement on 7 October.

He added: "The information shared with clients on 15 and 29 October was in no way connected to the Test and Trace calls, in which I was no longer a participant."

Meanwhile, Labour has called for emergency legislation to "stamp out dangerous anti-vax content" following promising preliminary results from the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.

The opposition claimed dedicated anti-vaccination groups with hundreds of thousands of members on social media are "churning out disinformation" on the issue.

Listen & subscribe: Global Player | Apple Podcasts | Google Podcasts | Spotify

More Latest News

See more More Latest News

Breaking
Police Line Do Not Cross ribbon on a London street following a suspected bomb reported in the area.

Schoolgirl, 10, dies after being bitten by family dog in North Yorkshire as police launch launch investigation

WATCH: Three family members of Sara Sharif were arrested at Gatwick Airport for her muder

WATCH: Moment police board plane and arrest fugitive family of schoolgirl Sara Sharif on suspicion of murder

Craig pleaded guilty to three counts of sexual offences against a teenage pupil

Ex-teacher jailed after he 'groomed' and sexually assaulted pupil in classroom cupboard

A 22-year-old woman died from a stab injury at Spenlow House on Jamaica Road, Bermondsey

Boy, 17, jailed for stabbing woman, 22, to death in 'laughing gas-fuelled row' on Christmas Eve

Jackie Scully will trek 100km across the Sahara desert to mark 10 years since she was given the all-clear

Breast cancer survivor to trek 100km across Sahara desert to mark 10 years since getting all-clear

Flooding And Heavy Rain In Valencia Region Of Spain

What we have seen in Spain these last days is a preview of the future if we do not take action on climate change

Kemi Badenoch has been elected as the new Conservative Party leader

New Tory leader Kemi Badenoch says 'huge job' ahead involves 'people we want to bring back to Conservative Party'

Janey Godley has died at the age of 63

Scottish comedian Janey Godley died in hospital 'surrounded by her loved ones' aged 63 following battle with cancer

Exclusive
Anthony Scaramucci

Anthony Scaramucci says 'garbage' comments made at Trump rally have 'lit up' Puerto Ricans - and could swing election

billy nighy

Billy Nighy 'stole complete works of Shakespeare from library' to prepare for drama school audition

v

Winner in Conservative leadership contest to be announced this morning

Palma is on lockdown amid warnings of heavy rain

Majorca on lockdown as tourist hotspot faces flooding horror after storm kills more than 200

UK GP visiting senior woman at home

Care homes and GPs could face closure under Labour tax plans, health leaders warn

Rebekah Vardy 'threatens to reignite war with Coleen Rooney'

Rebekah Vardy launches appeal against Wagatha Christie £1.8m costs ruling

Alexandra Palace Hosts Its Annual Fireworks Display Ahead Of Bonfire Night

Bonfire night 2024 forecast: What will the weather be like for fireworks night?

Darrian Williams

Two teen boys found guilty after 16-year-old stabbed to death by masked attackers in Bristol park