'Deep frustration' at social care tax hike as 'people abandon the Tories'

12 September 2021, 11:19 | Updated: 12 September 2021, 11:20

Lord Hayward spoke to LBC's Tom Swarbrick
Lord Hayward spoke to LBC's Tom Swarbrick. Picture: Alamy

By Will Taylor

There is deep frustration at the social care tax hike and people appear to be abandoning the Tories, a Conservative peer has told LBC.

Lord Robert Hayward, a polling expert, said on Swarbrick on Sunday that his party's loss will not necessarily be Labour's gain, with Tory voters instead shifting to "don't know" in surveys.

It comes despite reports that Boris Johnson hopes to be Prime Minister for longer than Margaret Thatcher's 11 years - meaning he would need to win at least two more general elections.

The Tories will be keeping a keen eye on whether current attitudes are influenced by the 1.25% National Insurance tax hike.

"I think (the polls) are part of a trend," Lord Hayward said.

"The peak for the Tory party was mid-May, June, July, this summer. The polls have been tapering down against the Tories ever since.

"There is a natural trend against a government - what is stunning is the Conservative party have been in such a strong position after 11 years of government."

He told Tom Swarbrick that in September 2008, after 11 years of government, Labour were 19 points behind the Tories.

Read more: Sajid Javid brands highest tax hike since the war a 'very Conservative move'

Read more: PM faces Commons vote over plan to hike taxes to highest levels since the war

Polling expert: Tory slump is move to 'don't know', not Labour surge

"What is striking is there's been quite a marked shift in the YouGov poll - but what is also striking is that most of the people who have shifted away from the Tories have gone to don't knows rather than to another political party, and also that the shift is among the over 65s.

"And it's worth noting that is a group of people who traditionally vote Conservative and vote Conservative in large numbers."

The "don't knows" are waiting to move to a party but haven't made up their minds, and that is evidenced by the fact that Labour haven't dramatically increased their support despite the fall in Tory backing, Lord Hayward said.

He said that those who have moved to "don't know" could move back to the Conservatives but may go for another party.

Ashworth hits out at NI hike

Labour's challenge, however, is the perception of the party.

"People don't actually know what the Labour party is offering. It's seen in the vast majority of the country outside London as too metropolitan, too London-oriented but not offering anything."

Asked about anger at the 1.25% National Insurance hike to pay for social care and help deal with the Covid backlog in the NHS, Lord Hayward admitted: 'The anger is there, there's no question, there is deep frustration.

"My personal frustration is that I'm not convinced that the money will be well spent."

More Latest News

See more More Latest News

Proud Boys claim they will go to voting places as Trump repeats election fraud lies.

Proud Boys making plans to mobilise as Trump repeats election fraud lies

File photo of a real NHS dentist

Desperate Brits fall for scam 'fake NHS dentists' amid years-long waits for appointments

The Kremlin is suspected of plotting the attack

'Parcel bombs' that blew up in warehouse were 'rehearsal' for Russian explosion attack on flight to US

Keir Starmer is not set to ban smoking in pub gardens, contrary to earlier reports

Cigarettes will not be banned in pub gardens under new Labour plan create 'smoke-free generation'

Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Reading, Pennsylvania

Trump threatens Mexico with 100% tariffs unless it cracks down on border crossings

Bridget Phillipson told Tonight with Andrew Marr that the fee hike was necessary to secure the future of universities.

‘Universities must reform’ says education secretary after first hike in tuition fees in 8 years

Two more cases of a new strain of mpox have been detected in the UK, officials say

Two more cases of new mpox strain detected in UK

Anya Taylor-Joy and her musician husband were the victims of a terrifying robbery

Anya Taylor-Joy and musician husband victims of burglary at London mansion

Exclusive
Nigel Farage speaking to LBC's Nick Ferrari about new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch

'The Remainers are back in town': Nigel Farage says Kemi Badenoch will bring 'no change whatsoever' to Tories

Amy Dowden

Strictly Come Dancing star Amy Dowden will not return to show this year following 'medical emergency'

Scott Paterson murdered his landlady Annette Smith

Tenant murdered and dismembered elderly landlady before posing as her by sending Christmas cards to family

Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel and Mel Stride will all serve in Kemi Badenoch's Shadow Cabinet

Kemi Badenoch names former leadership rivals Robert Jenrick and Priti Patel to Tory Shadow Cabinet team

Bridget Phillipson has confirmed the tuition fee rise

University tuition fees to rise for first time in eight years, as Tories accuse Labour of 'declaring war on students'

Sara Sharif had suffered dozens of injuries in the weeks leading up to her death, a court has heard

Video of Sara Sharif smiling and dancing 'days before murder' shown to court

Transport for London (TfL) has warned passengers that no Tube services are expected on Thursday 7 November

November Tube strikes to bring London to a halt this week despite RMT calling off action

Stuart Gogg during the Six Nations rugby match between France and Scotland in Saint-Denis, 26 February 2023

Former Scotland rugby captain pleads guilty to domestic abuse over five-year period against former partner