Earth set for 'catastrophic' 3.1C temperature rise as global warming reaches critical levels

24 October 2024, 15:15 | Updated: 24 October 2024, 15:44

Earth is on track for a "catastrophic" 3.1C of global warming, the UN has warned.

In its annual report, the UN warned that the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C “will soon be dead” as it revealed emissions for 2023 were the highest on record.

It warned the world was currently on track for temperature rises of 2.6C to 3.1C, depending on how much of the currently promised climate action is delivered.

These warnings come after a decade of climate talks, as well as a boom in the use of solar and wind power.

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The annual review predicts the world, at its current rate, could hit a staggering 3.1C of global warming before the end of the century.

Responding to the report, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres said the world was "teetering on a planetary tightrope".

"Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster - with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most," he said.

Nations committed to limiting temperature rises to "well below" 2C and pursue efforts to curb them to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels at the Paris climate talks in 2015.

As things stand, world leaders have "virtually zero" chance of meeting these goals.

Scientists have warned that there is no safe amount of climate change, but 1.5C has come to be seen as a threshold beyond which the worst impacts of climate change-driven heatwaves, droughts, floods, collapse of natural systems and rising sea levels will be felt.

Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP, said: "Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before - starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges - or the 1.5C goal will soon be dead and well below 2C will take its place in the intensive care unit."

She urged nations meeting for Cop29 to increase action now, set the stage for stronger national plans and then "go all-out to get on a 1.5C pathway".

She added: "Even if the world overshoots 1.5C - and the chances of this happening are increasing every day - we must keep striving for a net-zero, sustainable and prosperous world.

"Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot."

At current rates, the world must cut its emissions by a further 7.5% every year until 2035 if countries wish to meet their climate commitments.

Last year was the hottest on record, with warnings 2024 could be even warmer, according to EU scientists.

The average global temperature was 14.98C, which is 0.17C hotter than the previous record set in 2016, the EU's climate change service Copernicus said.

According to Met Office scientists, the record might not last long, with 2024 set to be hotter than ever.

Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said: "2023 was an exceptional year with climate records tumbling like dominoes.

"Not only is 2023 the warmest year on record, it is also the first year with all days over 1C warmer than the pre-industrial period.

"Temperatures during 2023 likely exceed those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years."