Bank expected to hike interest rates again, but pause may be on the cards

Markets have been asking themselves whether the Bank of England might stop raising interest rates next week after 14 consecutive hikes.

The Bank is still expected to set rates a little higher before it ends this cycle of what economists call tightening, but some think it might pause the rises next week and restart at the next meeting.

The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will report its decision at midday on Thursday, with most still expecting another hike to bring the base rate to 5.5%.

“Markets are once again toying with the idea of a pause from the Bank of England next week,” said James Smith and James Knightley at Dutch bank ING.

“We certainly don’t rule that out, and recent comments suggest the BoE is laying the ground for the end of this tightening cycle. The central bank might be tempted by a Fed-style ‘skip’ this month, accompanied by strong hints that it could hike again in November.

“That’s not our base case, given both wage growth and services inflation – the two key metrics upon which the BoE is basing policy – are higher than forecasted back in August.

“We suspect the Bank will keep its options open for November, but ultimately we think September’s meeting will mark the peak in this hiking cycle.”

It has been 21 months since the Bank started this round of interest rate hikes, bringing rates from a low of 0.1% in December 2021 to 5.25 today.

The increases have been an attempt to stem inflation, and the Bank’s Sarah Breeden, who is expected to join the MPC before November’s meeting, said this week she thought inflation could have been double the rate it reached without the Bank’s intervention.

But with inflation still high and new Consumer Prices Index figures due out next Wednesday, faith in the Bank’s ability to keep it under control has been shaken.

In a survey for the Bank, taken in early August but released on Friday, people were asked about whether it was “doing its job to set interest rates to control inflation”.

The net satisfaction rating for the Bank was minus 21, down from minus 13 in May.

Myron Jobson, senior personal finance analyst at Interactive Investor said: “While the public’s expectations on inflation by August next year is broadly in line with the BoE’s own forecast, when asked about expectations of inflation in five years’ time, respondents gave a median answer of 2.9%.

“The reality is no-one short of a functioning crystal ball could provide an accurate answer, but the fact that respondents gave an average figure that is almost one percentage point higher than the 2% target is hardly a vote of confidence in the BoE’s ability to keep a handle on inflation.”