Surprise rebound in UK retail sales but boost ‘expected to be short-lived’

Retailers reported an unexpected rebound in sales over the year to December but positivity could be “short-lived” amid continued pressure on budgets, according to new figures.

The Confederation for British Industry’s (CBI) latest monthly survey showed an improvement in sales in the run-up to Christmas.

The CBI’s headline retail sales balance increased to +9% reading for December, compared with the same month last year.

It reflected a rebound from -19% in November and came despite predictions of lower sales for the month.

The survey question deducts the number of firms saying they reported a decline in sales from the number reporting growth for the period.

Sales volumes recorded were seen as “typical for the time of year” despite rising costs for consumers, according to the survey.

However, retailers warned that they do not expect December’s recovery to continue into the new year, with the firm predicting that sales will decline again from January.

Martin Sartorius, principal economist at the CBI, said: “It’s encouraging to see retail sales surprise by growing this month, but any festive cheer is expected to be short-lived.

“Retailers are bracing themselves for the chill winds that will blow through the sector this winter, with consumer spending set to be hit hard by high inflation in 2023.”

Separate figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) meanwhile showed that retail footfall slipped last week amid a period of cold temperatures and industrial action by rail workers.

The ONS said that data from Springboard showed that footfall over the week to December 18 was 94% of the level seen in the previous week and 77% below pre-pandemic levels from 2019.

It highlighted that high streets were the worst affected retail area, with footfall at 88% of levels seen the previous week.