Scottish economy estimated to have shrunk by 0.3% in February, figures show

Scotland’s economy is estimated to have shrunk by 0.3% in February, figures from the Scottish Government show.

Its latest report revealed onshore GDP had contracted in the second month of 2024, despite having seen growth of 0.6% in January.

The new figures come as GDP data for the final three months of 2023 was revised, with the economy now said to have fallen by 0.5% over this period – compared with a previous estimate which said GDP had fallen by 0.6%

In its report, the Scottish Government said: “Although monthly GDP has fluctuated recently, the trend in underlying quarterly GDP has been broadly flat since the end of 2021.”

The latest figures show that GDP only grew by 0.1% over the course of 2023, with this revised down from an initial estimate which said the economy had grown by 0.2%.

However in the three months to February, GDP was estimated to have grown by 0.4% when compared with the previous three-month period.

The report noted that this was an improvement following the 0.5% fall in GDP in the final three months of 2023.

Wellbeing Economy Secretary Mairi McAllan said the figures showed the “challenging global economic conditions we continue to face” but stressed that the “overall outlook is of strengthening growth in Scotland’s economy”.

Ms McAllan said: “The three months to February saw growth of 0.4%. Looking ahead, the Scottish Fiscal Commission forecast economic growth to strengthen moderately across 2024 and 2025.

“The latest indicators provide an encouraging start to the year with more new businesses, stronger business activity and ongoing resilience in the labour market.”

And she added: “The Scottish Government is investing over £5 billion through its 2024-25 budget to drive an economy that is fair, green and growing.”

Meanwhile Scottish Secretary Alister Jack stated: “Long-term sustainable growth remains our goal, and with inflation expected to fall to our 2% target soon, we’re on track to achieve that. We must stick to our plan.

“Just this week, 2.4 million Scottish workers saw the benefit of the second 2p National Insurance cut, meaning a saving of £833 a year for the average worker. That’s on top of the biggest ever increase to the national living wage.

“The UK Government is now investing more than £3 billion direct into communities across the whole of Scotland, boosting trade and encouraging opportunity throughout the UK.”